Apnimed's IPO, priced at $16 per share for an upsized 12 million shares on July 30, 2026, with trading commencing July 31 under ticker APMD, underpins the 99.6% market-implied probability of a closing market capitalization above $960 million. Positive Phase 3 results for lead candidate AD109, FDA NDA acceptance in mid-July, and a robust 2026 biotech IPO backdrop have driven strong institutional demand, reflected in the offering's expansion beyond initial targets near $600 million valuation. This skin-in-the-game consensus from Polymarket traders prices in sustained momentum through the August 3 closing. Scenarios that could still shift outcomes include unexpected regulatory delays, weaker-than-expected aftermarket trading volumes, or macroeconomic shifts raising risk aversion in healthcare equities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$960M+ 99.6%
$600M-$720M 1.0%
$480M-$600M <1%
$840M-$960M <1%
$2,887 Vol.
$2,887 Vol.
Jul 30, 2026
<$480M
No
$480M-$600M
No
$600M-$720M
No
$720M-$840M
No
$840M-$960M
No
$960M+
Yes
No IPO before October 2026
No
$960M+ 99.6%
$600M-$720M 1.0%
$480M-$600M <1%
$840M-$960M <1%
$2,887 Vol.
$2,887 Vol.
Jul 30, 2026
<$480M
$182 Vol.
No
$480M-$600M
$392 Vol.
No
$600M-$720M
$759 Vol.
No
$720M-$840M
$237 Vol.
No
$840M-$960M
$511 Vol.
No
$960M+
$611 Vol.
Yes
No IPO before October 2026
$194 Vol.
No
This market will resolve based on Apnimed's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
As of market creation, the IPO is scheduled to price on July 31 (ET). If no such IPO occurs by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before October 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.
It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.
The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange’s official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading.
In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.Apnimed's IPO, priced at $16 per share for an upsized 12 million shares on July 30, 2026, with trading commencing July 31 under ticker APMD, underpins the 99.6% market-implied probability of a closing market capitalization above $960 million. Positive Phase 3 results for lead candidate AD109, FDA NDA acceptance in mid-July, and a robust 2026 biotech IPO backdrop have driven strong institutional demand, reflected in the offering's expansion beyond initial targets near $600 million valuation. This skin-in-the-game consensus from Polymarket traders prices in sustained momentum through the August 3 closing. Scenarios that could still shift outcomes include unexpected regulatory delays, weaker-than-expected aftermarket trading volumes, or macroeconomic shifts raising risk aversion in healthcare equities.
This market will resolve based on Apnimed's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
As of market creation, the IPO is scheduled to price on July 31 (ET). If no such IPO occurs by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before October 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.
It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.
The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange’s official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading.
In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.
As of market creation, the IPO is scheduled to price on July 31 (ET). If no such IPO occurs by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before October 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.
It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.
The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange’s official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading.
In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.
Market Opened: Jul 29, 2026, 6:20 PM ET
Volume
$2,887End Date
Jul 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 6:20 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve based on Apnimed's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
As of market creation, the IPO is scheduled to price on July 31 (ET). If no such IPO occurs by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before October 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.
It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.
The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange’s official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading.
In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.Apnimed's IPO, priced at $16 per share for an upsized 12 million shares on July 30, 2026, with trading commencing July 31 under ticker APMD, underpins the 99.6% market-implied probability of a closing market capitalization above $960 million. Positive Phase 3 results for lead candidate AD109, FDA NDA acceptance in mid-July, and a robust 2026 biotech IPO backdrop have driven strong institutional demand, reflected in the offering's expansion beyond initial targets near $600 million valuation. This skin-in-the-game consensus from Polymarket traders prices in sustained momentum through the August 3 closing. Scenarios that could still shift outcomes include unexpected regulatory delays, weaker-than-expected aftermarket trading volumes, or macroeconomic shifts raising risk aversion in healthcare equities.
This market will resolve based on Apnimed's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
As of market creation, the IPO is scheduled to price on July 31 (ET). If no such IPO occurs by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before October 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.
It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.
The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange’s official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading.
In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.
As of market creation, the IPO is scheduled to price on July 31 (ET). If no such IPO occurs by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before October 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.
It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.
The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange’s official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading.
In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.
Volume
$2,887End Date
Jul 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 6:20 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Apnimed's IPO, priced at $16 per share for an upsized 12 million shares on July 30, 2026, with trading commencing July 31 under ticker APMD, underpins the 99.6% market-implied probability of a closing market capitalization above $960 million. Positive Phase 3 results for lead candidate AD109, FDA NDA acceptance in mid-July, and a robust 2026 biotech IPO backdrop have driven strong institutional demand, reflected in the offering's expansion beyond initial targets near $600 million valuation. This skin-in-the-game consensus from Polymarket traders prices in sustained momentum through the August 3 closing. Scenarios that could still shift outcomes include unexpected regulatory delays, weaker-than-expected aftermarket trading volumes, or macroeconomic shifts raising risk aversion in healthcare equities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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