Traders see no dominant leader in image-to-video AI heading into late October, with market-implied odds clustered near 50% for "Other" and a broad field of contenders. Recent arena benchmarks show ByteDance's Seedance 2.0, Google's Veo 3.1 and Gemini Omni Flash, MiniMax's H3 series, and Kuaishou's Kling 3.0 trading top spots on realism, motion consistency, and native audio metrics, while Alibaba's Wan models and Runway's Gen-4.5 remain competitive on specific features. Frequent updates, shifting third-party evaluations, and the absence of a decisive capability leap keep sentiment fluid. Key catalysts ahead include any September or October model releases, new benchmark results, or capability demonstrations that could shift relative positioning before resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoByteDance 46%
Alibaba/Alibaba-ATH 25%
Lightricks 12%
Black Forest Labs 4%
NUEVO
NUEVO
31 oct 2026
ByteDance
25%
Alibaba/Alibaba-ATH
25%
Lightricks
12%
Black Forest Labs
15%
SpaceXAI
21%
Pixverse
19%
Runway
1%
24%
Shengshu
23%
KlingAI
1%
Luma AI
25%
Tencent
22%
Pruna
24%
MiniMax
31%
Pika
27%
ByteDance 46%
Alibaba/Alibaba-ATH 25%
Lightricks 12%
Black Forest Labs 4%
NUEVO
NUEVO
31 oct 2026
ByteDance
$54 Vol.
25%
Alibaba/Alibaba-ATH
$55 Vol.
25%
Lightricks
$81 Vol.
12%
Black Forest Labs
$74 Vol.
15%
SpaceXAI
$41 Vol.
21%
Pixverse
$51 Vol.
19%
Runway
$165 Vol.
1%
$37 Vol.
24%
Shengshu
$59 Vol.
23%
KlingAI
$64 Vol.
1%
Luma AI
$37 Vol.
25%
Tencent
$75 Vol.
22%
Pruna
$51 Vol.
24%
MiniMax
$88 Vol.
31%
Pika
$37 Vol.
27%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Image-to-Video Leaderboard when the table under "Image-to-Video Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Image-to-Video Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/image-to-video filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Models marked “Preliminary” at the applicable check time will be considered.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Image-to-Video Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Traders see no dominant leader in image-to-video AI heading into late October, with market-implied odds clustered near 50% for "Other" and a broad field of contenders. Recent arena benchmarks show ByteDance's Seedance 2.0, Google's Veo 3.1 and Gemini Omni Flash, MiniMax's H3 series, and Kuaishou's Kling 3.0 trading top spots on realism, motion consistency, and native audio metrics, while Alibaba's Wan models and Runway's Gen-4.5 remain competitive on specific features. Frequent updates, shifting third-party evaluations, and the absence of a decisive capability leap keep sentiment fluid. Key catalysts ahead include any September or October model releases, new benchmark results, or capability demonstrations that could shift relative positioning before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Image-to-Video Leaderboard when the table under "Image-to-Video Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Image-to-Video Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/image-to-video filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Models marked “Preliminary” at the applicable check time will be considered.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Image-to-Video Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Image-to-Video Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/image-to-video filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Models marked “Preliminary” at the applicable check time will be considered.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Image-to-Video Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Mercado abierto: Sep 9, 2026, 3:52 PM ET
Volumen
$968Fecha de finalización
1 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 9, 2026, 3:52 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Image-to-Video Leaderboard when the table under "Image-to-Video Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Image-to-Video Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/image-to-video filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Models marked “Preliminary” at the applicable check time will be considered.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Image-to-Video Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Traders see no dominant leader in image-to-video AI heading into late October, with market-implied odds clustered near 50% for "Other" and a broad field of contenders. Recent arena benchmarks show ByteDance's Seedance 2.0, Google's Veo 3.1 and Gemini Omni Flash, MiniMax's H3 series, and Kuaishou's Kling 3.0 trading top spots on realism, motion consistency, and native audio metrics, while Alibaba's Wan models and Runway's Gen-4.5 remain competitive on specific features. Frequent updates, shifting third-party evaluations, and the absence of a decisive capability leap keep sentiment fluid. Key catalysts ahead include any September or October model releases, new benchmark results, or capability demonstrations that could shift relative positioning before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Image-to-Video Leaderboard when the table under "Image-to-Video Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Image-to-Video Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/image-to-video filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Models marked “Preliminary” at the applicable check time will be considered.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Image-to-Video Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Image-to-Video Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/image-to-video filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Models marked “Preliminary” at the applicable check time will be considered.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Image-to-Video Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volumen
$968Fecha de finalización
1 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 9, 2026, 3:52 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders see no dominant leader in image-to-video AI heading into late October, with market-implied odds clustered near 50% for "Other" and a broad field of contenders. Recent arena benchmarks show ByteDance's Seedance 2.0, Google's Veo 3.1 and Gemini Omni Flash, MiniMax's H3 series, and Kuaishou's Kling 3.0 trading top spots on realism, motion consistency, and native audio metrics, while Alibaba's Wan models and Runway's Gen-4.5 remain competitive on specific features. Frequent updates, shifting third-party evaluations, and the absence of a decisive capability leap keep sentiment fluid. Key catalysts ahead include any September or October model releases, new benchmark results, or capability demonstrations that could shift relative positioning before resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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