A rapidly strengthening El Niño, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies already exceeding +2.5 °C in late August 2026 and models projecting a very strong or historic peak by October–December, is the dominant factor elevating September 2026 temperatures. This builds on 2026’s year-to-date ranking among the three warmest periods on record and ongoing long-term anthropogenic warming, positioning the month for top-tier status behind only the 2023–2024 El Niño-driven peaks. Official forecasts from NOAA and multi-model ensembles show high confidence in above-normal global temperatures through boreal fall, though exact monthly ranking retains some uncertainty from model spread and the precise timing of peak ocean-atmosphere heat release. These conditions align with the market’s elevated implied probabilities for second- or first-hottest outcomes.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Septiembre de 2026, el primero, el segundo o el tercero más caluroso registrado?
¿Septiembre de 2026, el primero, el segundo o el tercero más caluroso registrado?
2º más caluroso 82%
El más caluroso 36%
4º o inferior 30%
3º más caluroso 29%
NUEVO
NUEVO
30 sep 2026
El más caluroso
36%
2º más caluroso
57%
3º más caluroso
29%
4º o inferior
30%
2º más caluroso 82%
El más caluroso 36%
4º o inferior 30%
3º más caluroso 29%
NUEVO
NUEVO
30 sep 2026
El más caluroso
$273 Vol.
36%
2º más caluroso
$1 Vol.
57%
3º más caluroso
$0 Vol.
29%
4º o inferior
$250 Vol.
30%
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 versus the data points available for all other Septembers on record.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.A rapidly strengthening El Niño, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies already exceeding +2.5 °C in late August 2026 and models projecting a very strong or historic peak by October–December, is the dominant factor elevating September 2026 temperatures. This builds on 2026’s year-to-date ranking among the three warmest periods on record and ongoing long-term anthropogenic warming, positioning the month for top-tier status behind only the 2023–2024 El Niño-driven peaks. Official forecasts from NOAA and multi-model ensembles show high confidence in above-normal global temperatures through boreal fall, though exact monthly ranking retains some uncertainty from model spread and the precise timing of peak ocean-atmosphere heat release. These conditions align with the market’s elevated implied probabilities for second- or first-hottest outcomes.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 versus the data points available for all other Septembers on record.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Mercado abierto: Aug 28, 2026, 11:14 AM ET
Volumen
$525Fecha de finalización
1 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 28, 2026, 11:14 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 versus the data points available for all other Septembers on record.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.A rapidly strengthening El Niño, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies already exceeding +2.5 °C in late August 2026 and models projecting a very strong or historic peak by October–December, is the dominant factor elevating September 2026 temperatures. This builds on 2026’s year-to-date ranking among the three warmest periods on record and ongoing long-term anthropogenic warming, positioning the month for top-tier status behind only the 2023–2024 El Niño-driven peaks. Official forecasts from NOAA and multi-model ensembles show high confidence in above-normal global temperatures through boreal fall, though exact monthly ranking retains some uncertainty from model spread and the precise timing of peak ocean-atmosphere heat release. These conditions align with the market’s elevated implied probabilities for second- or first-hottest outcomes.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 versus the data points available for all other Septembers on record.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Volumen
$525Fecha de finalización
1 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 28, 2026, 11:14 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A rapidly strengthening El Niño, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies already exceeding +2.5 °C in late August 2026 and models projecting a very strong or historic peak by October–December, is the dominant factor elevating September 2026 temperatures. This builds on 2026’s year-to-date ranking among the three warmest periods on record and ongoing long-term anthropogenic warming, positioning the month for top-tier status behind only the 2023–2024 El Niño-driven peaks. Official forecasts from NOAA and multi-model ensembles show high confidence in above-normal global temperatures through boreal fall, though exact monthly ranking retains some uncertainty from model spread and the precise timing of peak ocean-atmosphere heat release. These conditions align with the market’s elevated implied probabilities for second- or first-hottest outcomes.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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