Record-low 2026 winter maximum extent of 14.29 million square kilometers, tied with 2025, has set a low baseline for summer melt, with July 30 extent at 6.62 million square kilometers—14% below the 1991-2020 median. Rapid July decline and persistent above-average Arctic temperatures have aligned current trajectories near 2025’s 4.6–4.86 million square kilometer minimum, supporting market clustering around 4.2–4.8 million. Key differentiators include August–September atmospheric patterns (high-pressure ridges favoring clear-sky radiative melt versus stormy conditions promoting ice compaction or export), ocean heat uptake, and initial ice thickness distribution. New model runs and NSIDC daily observations through mid-August will refine these probabilities ahead of the typical September minimum.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Extensión mínima del hielo marino del Ártico este verano?
¿Extensión mínima del hielo marino del Ártico este verano?
4,2-4,4 millones de km² 23.6%
4,6-4,8 millones de km² 19.6%
<4 millones km² 18%
4.4-4.6 millones de km² 16.2%
$65,565 Vol.
$65,565 Vol.
1 oct 2026
<4 millones km²
18%
4,0-4,2 millones km²
13%
4,2-4,4 millones de km²
24%
4.4-4.6 millones de km²
16%
4,6-4,8 millones de km²
20%
4.8-5 millones de km²
3%
5+ millones de km²
5%
4,2-4,4 millones de km² 23.6%
4,6-4,8 millones de km² 19.6%
<4 millones km² 18%
4.4-4.6 millones de km² 16.2%
$65,565 Vol.
$65,565 Vol.
1 oct 2026
<4 millones km²
$29,945 Vol.
18%
4,0-4,2 millones km²
$6,392 Vol.
13%
4,2-4,4 millones de km²
$2,714 Vol.
24%
4.4-4.6 millones de km²
$2,907 Vol.
16%
4,6-4,8 millones de km²
$6,513 Vol.
20%
4.8-5 millones de km²
$2,757 Vol.
3%
5+ millones de km²
$14,336 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.Record-low 2026 winter maximum extent of 14.29 million square kilometers, tied with 2025, has set a low baseline for summer melt, with July 30 extent at 6.62 million square kilometers—14% below the 1991-2020 median. Rapid July decline and persistent above-average Arctic temperatures have aligned current trajectories near 2025’s 4.6–4.86 million square kilometer minimum, supporting market clustering around 4.2–4.8 million. Key differentiators include August–September atmospheric patterns (high-pressure ridges favoring clear-sky radiative melt versus stormy conditions promoting ice compaction or export), ocean heat uptake, and initial ice thickness distribution. New model runs and NSIDC daily observations through mid-August will refine these probabilities ahead of the typical September minimum.
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
Mercado abierto: Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ET
Volumen
$65,565Fecha de finalización
1 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.Record-low 2026 winter maximum extent of 14.29 million square kilometers, tied with 2025, has set a low baseline for summer melt, with July 30 extent at 6.62 million square kilometers—14% below the 1991-2020 median. Rapid July decline and persistent above-average Arctic temperatures have aligned current trajectories near 2025’s 4.6–4.86 million square kilometer minimum, supporting market clustering around 4.2–4.8 million. Key differentiators include August–September atmospheric patterns (high-pressure ridges favoring clear-sky radiative melt versus stormy conditions promoting ice compaction or export), ocean heat uptake, and initial ice thickness distribution. New model runs and NSIDC daily observations through mid-August will refine these probabilities ahead of the typical September minimum.
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
Volumen
$65,565Fecha de finalización
1 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Record-low 2026 winter maximum extent of 14.29 million square kilometers, tied with 2025, has set a low baseline for summer melt, with July 30 extent at 6.62 million square kilometers—14% below the 1991-2020 median. Rapid July decline and persistent above-average Arctic temperatures have aligned current trajectories near 2025’s 4.6–4.86 million square kilometer minimum, supporting market clustering around 4.2–4.8 million. Key differentiators include August–September atmospheric patterns (high-pressure ridges favoring clear-sky radiative melt versus stormy conditions promoting ice compaction or export), ocean heat uptake, and initial ice thickness distribution. New model runs and NSIDC daily observations through mid-August will refine these probabilities ahead of the typical September minimum.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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