**Macron's second presidential term runs until May 2027, when constitutional term limits bar him from seeking a third consecutive mandate.** He has repeatedly stated he intends to serve out his full term and exit politics afterward, most recently confirming this stance in April 2026. Persistent legislative fragmentation stemming from the 2024 snap elections produced repeated government instability in 2025, including the September resignation of Prime Minister Bayrou and the short-lived Lecornu governments amid budget disputes and no-confidence votes. Macron rejected opposition and some ally calls for early resignation, prioritizing continuity. The 2026 budget eventually passed in early 2026 despite the turmoil. These factors, combined with the absence of any acute new crisis forcing departure, underpin trader consensus assigning very low probability to an exit before mid-2026. Key variables ahead include further parliamentary gridlock or coalition shifts before the 2027 vote.