**Latest numerical weather prediction runs from global and regional models, including those referenced by agencies like the China Meteorological Administration, indicate a minimum temperature in Jinan on September 14 most likely between 16–20°C under clear skies and light variable winds.** These conditions support moderate radiative cooling overnight following daytime highs near 30–31°C, consistent with early-to-mid September climatology for the region where average lows hover around 17–19°C. Ensemble spreads show limited divergence on timing of the nocturnal minimum, though local urban heat island effects or slight variations in boundary-layer moisture could shift the exact value by 1–2°C. Traders appear to weigh these stable, high-confidence forecasts against residual model uncertainty for the precise low, keeping probabilities balanced across mid-range buckets while assigning equal weight to the broader 12°C-or-below and 22°C-or-higher tails. Updated short-range model guidance expected overnight will provide the next key data point ahead of resolution.