**Forecast models and real-time observations position the overnight low in Jeddah near 30–32°C on August 23, 2026, aligning with the market's heaviest weighting on those bins.** Multiple sources, including WeatherBug, Yr.no, and Tutiempo, indicate nighttime temperatures holding around 30–32°C (roughly 86–90°F) under partly cloudy skies, light northerly winds, and elevated humidity from the adjacent Red Sea. These conditions limit radiative cooling, a common feature in Jeddah's coastal climate during peak summer. Recent data reinforce this range. Early August 2026 minima reached as low as 28.6°C, but mid-to-late month readings have trended 1–3°C above the long-term August average low of ~27–29°C. Current evening observations near 32–33°C, combined with stable high pressure and minimal cloud cover overnight, support limited further drop. No incoming weather systems or shifts in steering patterns are expected to alter this before midnight. Traders appear to discount sub-30°C outcomes due to the observed persistence of warm, humid boundary-layer air and the absence of stronger offshore flow that could enhance cooling. Resolution will hinge on official minimum readings, likely from Jeddah airport stations, with 32°C carrying the highest implied probability given the latest model consensus.