Recent National Weather Service model guidance highlights northerly flow and a cool air mass advection into the Midwest, producing forecast overnight lows near or below seasonal normals of 64°F for late August in Chicago. Ensemble spreads from GFS and ECMWF runs create uncertainty around radiational cooling rates under partly clear skies, moderated by Lake Michigan's thermal influence and urban heat island effects that can raise minimums by several degrees versus outlying areas. Trader positioning reflects this variability, with closely matched implied probabilities across the 47°F-or-below, 56-59°F, and 56-57°F bins driven by the potential for stronger-than-expected cooling versus lingering warmth. Updated short-range model consensus and the final NWS forecast before sunset on August 23 will likely refine resolution criteria tied to official O'Hare observations.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Temperatura más baja en Chicago el 24 de agosto?
¿Temperatura más baja en Chicago el 24 de agosto?
47°F o menos 71%
58-59°F 37%
56-57°F 27%
66°F o más 26%
NUEVO
NUEVO
24 ago 2026
47°F o menos
71%
48-49°F
9%
50-51°F
21%
52-53°F
11%
54-55°F
20%
56-57°F
27%
58-59°F
36%
60-61°F
12%
62-63°F
12%
64-65°F
8%
66°F o más
26%
47°F o menos 71%
58-59°F 37%
56-57°F 27%
66°F o más 26%
NUEVO
NUEVO
24 ago 2026
47°F o menos
$5 Vol.
71%
48-49°F
$55 Vol.
9%
50-51°F
$55 Vol.
21%
52-53°F
$0 Vol.
11%
54-55°F
$0 Vol.
20%
56-57°F
$0 Vol.
27%
58-59°F
$5 Vol.
36%
60-61°F
$0 Vol.
12%
62-63°F
$0 Vol.
12%
64-65°F
$20 Vol.
8%
66°F o más
$15 Vol.
26%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service model guidance highlights northerly flow and a cool air mass advection into the Midwest, producing forecast overnight lows near or below seasonal normals of 64°F for late August in Chicago. Ensemble spreads from GFS and ECMWF runs create uncertainty around radiational cooling rates under partly clear skies, moderated by Lake Michigan's thermal influence and urban heat island effects that can raise minimums by several degrees versus outlying areas. Trader positioning reflects this variability, with closely matched implied probabilities across the 47°F-or-below, 56-59°F, and 56-57°F bins driven by the potential for stronger-than-expected cooling versus lingering warmth. Updated short-range model consensus and the final NWS forecast before sunset on August 23 will likely refine resolution criteria tied to official O'Hare observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado abierto: Aug 22, 2026, 9:29 PM ET
Volumen
$155Fecha de finalización
24 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 22, 2026, 9:29 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kordResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service model guidance highlights northerly flow and a cool air mass advection into the Midwest, producing forecast overnight lows near or below seasonal normals of 64°F for late August in Chicago. Ensemble spreads from GFS and ECMWF runs create uncertainty around radiational cooling rates under partly clear skies, moderated by Lake Michigan's thermal influence and urban heat island effects that can raise minimums by several degrees versus outlying areas. Trader positioning reflects this variability, with closely matched implied probabilities across the 47°F-or-below, 56-59°F, and 56-57°F bins driven by the potential for stronger-than-expected cooling versus lingering warmth. Updated short-range model consensus and the final NWS forecast before sunset on August 23 will likely refine resolution criteria tied to official O'Hare observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$155Fecha de finalización
24 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 22, 2026, 9:29 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kordResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service model guidance highlights northerly flow and a cool air mass advection into the Midwest, producing forecast overnight lows near or below seasonal normals of 64°F for late August in Chicago. Ensemble spreads from GFS and ECMWF runs create uncertainty around radiational cooling rates under partly clear skies, moderated by Lake Michigan's thermal influence and urban heat island effects that can raise minimums by several degrees versus outlying areas. Trader positioning reflects this variability, with closely matched implied probabilities across the 47°F-or-below, 56-59°F, and 56-57°F bins driven by the potential for stronger-than-expected cooling versus lingering warmth. Updated short-range model consensus and the final NWS forecast before sunset on August 23 will likely refine resolution criteria tied to official O'Hare observations.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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