**Stable late-summer conditions with southerly flow, high dew points, and mostly clear skies are keeping overnight lows anchored in the mid-70s for Austin on August 31.** Official and model guidance from sources such as the National Weather Service and major forecast providers consistently point to a minimum near 76°F under light south to southeast winds of 5–10 mph and dew points in the low-to-mid 70s. These factors limit radiative cooling, as elevated moisture reduces the temperature drop after sunset despite clear conditions. Trader positioning reflects this narrow range, with the 74–75°F and 72–73°F buckets holding the highest implied probabilities (36% and 33%). Minor model spread in exact overnight minima—driven by small differences in boundary-layer moisture and wind—explains the clustering around these outcomes, while probabilities fall sharply above 78°F or below 72°F. No frontal passages or significant cloud-cover changes are expected to alter the pattern before the low is realized early on the 31st.