Iran has conducted multiple strikes on commercial tankers and other vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz in recent weeks as part of efforts to control maritime routes during the ongoing US-Iran conflict that began in late February 2026. The most recent reported incidents include Iranian claims of hitting two oil tankers under US escort around July 31, following earlier attacks on at least five vessels since mid-June that prompted expanded US naval responses and strikes on Iranian coastal defenses and missile sites. These developments occur against a backdrop of fluctuating shipping traffic, with traders monitoring enforcement of any blockade measures, diplomatic statements on navigation rights, and potential further escalation tied to US cabinet discussions or Iranian retaliation cycles. Scheduled military or diplomatic actions in the coming weeks could alter the frequency or success rate of such targeting.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoIran successfully targets shipping by...?
Iran successfully targets shipping by...?
NUEVO
$17,639 Vol.
9 ago 2026
August 9
42%
16 de agosto
53%
August 31
61%
September 30
80%
$17,639 Vol.
August 9
$5,260 Vol.
42%
16 de agosto
$5,102 Vol.
53%
August 31
$4,112 Vol.
61%
September 30
$3,166 Vol.
80%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship between market creation, and the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to "No".Iran has conducted multiple strikes on commercial tankers and other vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz in recent weeks as part of efforts to control maritime routes during the ongoing US-Iran conflict that began in late February 2026. The most recent reported incidents include Iranian claims of hitting two oil tankers under US escort around July 31, following earlier attacks on at least five vessels since mid-June that prompted expanded US naval responses and strikes on Iranian coastal defenses and missile sites. These developments occur against a backdrop of fluctuating shipping traffic, with traders monitoring enforcement of any blockade measures, diplomatic statements on navigation rights, and potential further escalation tied to US cabinet discussions or Iranian retaliation cycles. Scheduled military or diplomatic actions in the coming weeks could alter the frequency or success rate of such targeting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship between market creation, and the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to "No".
Mercado abierto: Aug 3, 2026, 4:24 PM ET
Volumen
$17,639Fecha de finalización
30 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 3, 2026, 4:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship between market creation, and the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to "No".Iran has conducted multiple strikes on commercial tankers and other vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz in recent weeks as part of efforts to control maritime routes during the ongoing US-Iran conflict that began in late February 2026. The most recent reported incidents include Iranian claims of hitting two oil tankers under US escort around July 31, following earlier attacks on at least five vessels since mid-June that prompted expanded US naval responses and strikes on Iranian coastal defenses and missile sites. These developments occur against a backdrop of fluctuating shipping traffic, with traders monitoring enforcement of any blockade measures, diplomatic statements on navigation rights, and potential further escalation tied to US cabinet discussions or Iranian retaliation cycles. Scheduled military or diplomatic actions in the coming weeks could alter the frequency or success rate of such targeting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship between market creation, and the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to "No".
Volumen
$17,639Fecha de finalización
30 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 3, 2026, 4:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran has conducted multiple strikes on commercial tankers and other vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz in recent weeks as part of efforts to control maritime routes during the ongoing US-Iran conflict that began in late February 2026. The most recent reported incidents include Iranian claims of hitting two oil tankers under US escort around July 31, following earlier attacks on at least five vessels since mid-June that prompted expanded US naval responses and strikes on Iranian coastal defenses and missile sites. These developments occur against a backdrop of fluctuating shipping traffic, with traders monitoring enforcement of any blockade measures, diplomatic statements on navigation rights, and potential further escalation tied to US cabinet discussions or Iranian retaliation cycles. Scheduled military or diplomatic actions in the coming weeks could alter the frequency or success rate of such targeting.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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