Recent preliminary reports from NOAA's Storm Prediction Center place July 2026 tornado activity near or slightly above the long-term average of roughly 119, with 128 total reports cited in monitoring updates yet only 98 confirmed so far. This narrow spread between preliminary counts and verified confirmations—concentrated in the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes amid a northward-shifted jet stream and limited tropical influences—explains the tight market clustering around the 100–159 ranges. Model guidance and historical analogs indicate that final SPC quality-controlled numbers often settle 15–25% below initial reports, sustaining uncertainty until the August release while underscoring the distinction between raw LSRs and verified EF-scale events.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Cuántos tornados hay en Estados Unidos en julio?
¿Cuántos tornados hay en Estados Unidos en julio?
<100 4.7%
310+ 2.6%
280–310 2.5%
250–279 <1%
$3,611 Vol.
$3,611 Vol.
1 ago 2026
<100
6%
100–129
50%
130–159
48%
160–189
48%
190–219
37%
220–249
47%
250–279
1%
280–310
3%
310+
3%
<100 4.7%
310+ 2.6%
280–310 2.5%
250–279 <1%
$3,611 Vol.
$3,611 Vol.
1 ago 2026
<100
$808 Vol.
6%
100–129
$372 Vol.
50%
130–159
$285 Vol.
48%
160–189
$356 Vol.
48%
190–219
$320 Vol.
37%
220–249
$303 Vol.
47%
250–279
$426 Vol.
1%
280–310
$400 Vol.
3%
310+
$342 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on August 10, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Recent preliminary reports from NOAA's Storm Prediction Center place July 2026 tornado activity near or slightly above the long-term average of roughly 119, with 128 total reports cited in monitoring updates yet only 98 confirmed so far. This narrow spread between preliminary counts and verified confirmations—concentrated in the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes amid a northward-shifted jet stream and limited tropical influences—explains the tight market clustering around the 100–159 ranges. Model guidance and historical analogs indicate that final SPC quality-controlled numbers often settle 15–25% below initial reports, sustaining uncertainty until the August release while underscoring the distinction between raw LSRs and verified EF-scale events.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on August 10, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on August 10, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Mercado abierto: Jun 9, 2026, 1:12 PM ET
Volumen
$3,611Fecha de finalización
1 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Jun 9, 2026, 1:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on August 10, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Recent preliminary reports from NOAA's Storm Prediction Center place July 2026 tornado activity near or slightly above the long-term average of roughly 119, with 128 total reports cited in monitoring updates yet only 98 confirmed so far. This narrow spread between preliminary counts and verified confirmations—concentrated in the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes amid a northward-shifted jet stream and limited tropical influences—explains the tight market clustering around the 100–159 ranges. Model guidance and historical analogs indicate that final SPC quality-controlled numbers often settle 15–25% below initial reports, sustaining uncertainty until the August release while underscoring the distinction between raw LSRs and verified EF-scale events.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on August 10, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on August 10, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Volumen
$3,611Fecha de finalización
1 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Jun 9, 2026, 1:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent preliminary reports from NOAA's Storm Prediction Center place July 2026 tornado activity near or slightly above the long-term average of roughly 119, with 128 total reports cited in monitoring updates yet only 98 confirmed so far. This narrow spread between preliminary counts and verified confirmations—concentrated in the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes amid a northward-shifted jet stream and limited tropical influences—explains the tight market clustering around the 100–159 ranges. Model guidance and historical analogs indicate that final SPC quality-controlled numbers often settle 15–25% below initial reports, sustaining uncertainty until the August release while underscoring the distinction between raw LSRs and verified EF-scale events.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes