**Seven Republican senators have confirmed they will not seek re-election in the 2026 cycle, aligning with the market's dominant 77.5% probability on that outcome.** Ballotpedia and related reporting as of mid-August 2026 list exactly seven such Republicans among the eleven total Senate incumbents not running, including announced retirements by figures such as Joni Ernst (Iowa), Thom Tillis (North Carolina), Steve Daines (Montana), and Cynthia Lummis (Wyoming), along with primary defeats like Bill Cassidy (Louisiana) and related transitions such as Alan Armstrong filling a vacated seat. These decisions reflect standard factors including age, personal timing, gubernatorial bids, and primary challenges amid a larger wave of congressional retirements. No additional Republican departures have materialized in the past several months to shift the count, keeping probabilities on alternatives like 5, 9, or 11 below 8% each. The market resolution hinges on final candidate filings and any unforeseen vacancies before the November 2026 general election.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Cuántos senadores republicanos no se postularán en 2026?
¿Cuántos senadores republicanos no se postularán en 2026?
7 78%
11 7.8%
9 5.1%
5 3.0%
$101,131 Vol.
$101,131 Vol.
31 ago 2026
<5
1%
5
3%
6
1%
7
78%
8
1%
9
5%
10
1%
11
8%
12 o más
<1%
7 78%
11 7.8%
9 5.1%
5 3.0%
$101,131 Vol.
$101,131 Vol.
31 ago 2026
<5
$22,734 Vol.
1%
5
$17,511 Vol.
3%
6
$27,247 Vol.
1%
7
$16,977 Vol.
78%
8
$4,623 Vol.
1%
9
$2,208 Vol.
5%
10
$1,873 Vol.
1%
11
$2,845 Vol.
8%
12 o más
$5,112 Vol.
<1%
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Seven Republican senators have confirmed they will not seek re-election in the 2026 cycle, aligning with the market's dominant 77.5% probability on that outcome.** Ballotpedia and related reporting as of mid-August 2026 list exactly seven such Republicans among the eleven total Senate incumbents not running, including announced retirements by figures such as Joni Ernst (Iowa), Thom Tillis (North Carolina), Steve Daines (Montana), and Cynthia Lummis (Wyoming), along with primary defeats like Bill Cassidy (Louisiana) and related transitions such as Alan Armstrong filling a vacated seat.
These decisions reflect standard factors including age, personal timing, gubernatorial bids, and primary challenges amid a larger wave of congressional retirements. No additional Republican departures have materialized in the past several months to shift the count, keeping probabilities on alternatives like 5, 9, or 11 below 8% each. The market resolution hinges on final candidate filings and any unforeseen vacancies before the November 2026 general election.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Dec 12, 2025, 6:43 PM ET
Volumen
$101,131Fecha de finalización
31 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 12, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Seven Republican senators have confirmed they will not seek re-election in the 2026 cycle, aligning with the market's dominant 77.5% probability on that outcome.** Ballotpedia and related reporting as of mid-August 2026 list exactly seven such Republicans among the eleven total Senate incumbents not running, including announced retirements by figures such as Joni Ernst (Iowa), Thom Tillis (North Carolina), Steve Daines (Montana), and Cynthia Lummis (Wyoming), along with primary defeats like Bill Cassidy (Louisiana) and related transitions such as Alan Armstrong filling a vacated seat.
These decisions reflect standard factors including age, personal timing, gubernatorial bids, and primary challenges amid a larger wave of congressional retirements. No additional Republican departures have materialized in the past several months to shift the count, keeping probabilities on alternatives like 5, 9, or 11 below 8% each. The market resolution hinges on final candidate filings and any unforeseen vacancies before the November 2026 general election.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$101,131Fecha de finalización
31 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 12, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...**Seven Republican senators have confirmed they will not seek re-election in the 2026 cycle, aligning with the market's dominant 77.5% probability on that outcome.** Ballotpedia and related reporting as of mid-August 2026 list exactly seven such Republicans among the eleven total Senate incumbents not running, including announced retirements by figures such as Joni Ernst (Iowa), Thom Tillis (North Carolina), Steve Daines (Montana), and Cynthia Lummis (Wyoming), along with primary defeats like Bill Cassidy (Louisiana) and related transitions such as Alan Armstrong filling a vacated seat. These decisions reflect standard factors including age, personal timing, gubernatorial bids, and primary challenges amid a larger wave of congressional retirements. No additional Republican departures have materialized in the past several months to shift the count, keeping probabilities on alternatives like 5, 9, or 11 below 8% each. The market resolution hinges on final candidate filings and any unforeseen vacancies before the November 2026 general election.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoRelacionado
¿Será el número de miembros republicanos de la Cámara que se retiren en 2026 entre 36 y 39, inclusive?
83%
Sí
¿Será el número de miembros demócratas de la Cámara que se retiren en 2026 entre 20 y 23 inclusive?
50%
Sí
¿No ganarán los titulares republicanos del Senado en exactamente tres elecciones de nominación en el ciclo de 2026?
79%
Sí
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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