Recent labor market data, including softer August nonfarm payrolls and rising initial jobless claims, have driven the tight clustering of probabilities around modest September job gains, with the 50k-100k range holding a narrow 24.5% edge. Traders price in continued cooling from prior months amid the Federal Reserve’s post-rate-cut policy path, moderating wage growth, and mixed signals from ADP private payrolls and JOLTS openings. Key swing factors include potential revisions to prior estimates and sector hiring trends in services versus manufacturing. The upcoming September jobs report, scheduled for early October, remains the primary catalyst that could resolve the current deadlock between sub-50k and 100k-plus scenarios.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Cuántos puestos de trabajo se han añadido en septiembre?
¿Cuántos puestos de trabajo se han añadido en septiembre?
50.000 a 100.000 25%
0 a 50 mil 22%
100k a 150k 21%
-50k a 0 11%
NUEVO
NUEVO
2 oct 2026
<-50k
9%
-50k a 0
11%
0 a 50 mil
22%
50.000 a 100.000
25%
100k a 150k
21%
150k a 200k
5%
200k+
8%
50.000 a 100.000 25%
0 a 50 mil 22%
100k a 150k 21%
-50k a 0 11%
NUEVO
NUEVO
2 oct 2026
<-50k
$248 Vol.
9%
-50k a 0
$337 Vol.
11%
0 a 50 mil
$199 Vol.
22%
50.000 a 100.000
$159 Vol.
25%
100k a 150k
$261 Vol.
21%
150k a 200k
$260 Vol.
5%
200k+
$424 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve according to the change in the total nonfarm payroll employment reported by the BLS "Employment Situation Summary" for September 2026, scheduled to be released on October 2, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htmRecent labor market data, including softer August nonfarm payrolls and rising initial jobless claims, have driven the tight clustering of probabilities around modest September job gains, with the 50k-100k range holding a narrow 24.5% edge. Traders price in continued cooling from prior months amid the Federal Reserve’s post-rate-cut policy path, moderating wage growth, and mixed signals from ADP private payrolls and JOLTS openings. Key swing factors include potential revisions to prior estimates and sector hiring trends in services versus manufacturing. The upcoming September jobs report, scheduled for early October, remains the primary catalyst that could resolve the current deadlock between sub-50k and 100k-plus scenarios.
This market will resolve according to the change in the total nonfarm payroll employment reported by the BLS "Employment Situation Summary" for September 2026, scheduled to be released on October 2, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm
Mercado abierto: Sep 4, 2026, 12:37 PM ET
Volumen
$1,888Fecha de finalización
3 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 4, 2026, 12:37 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htmResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the change in the total nonfarm payroll employment reported by the BLS "Employment Situation Summary" for September 2026, scheduled to be released on October 2, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htmRecent labor market data, including softer August nonfarm payrolls and rising initial jobless claims, have driven the tight clustering of probabilities around modest September job gains, with the 50k-100k range holding a narrow 24.5% edge. Traders price in continued cooling from prior months amid the Federal Reserve’s post-rate-cut policy path, moderating wage growth, and mixed signals from ADP private payrolls and JOLTS openings. Key swing factors include potential revisions to prior estimates and sector hiring trends in services versus manufacturing. The upcoming September jobs report, scheduled for early October, remains the primary catalyst that could resolve the current deadlock between sub-50k and 100k-plus scenarios.
This market will resolve according to the change in the total nonfarm payroll employment reported by the BLS "Employment Situation Summary" for September 2026, scheduled to be released on October 2, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm
Volumen
$1,888Fecha de finalización
3 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 4, 2026, 12:37 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htmResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent labor market data, including softer August nonfarm payrolls and rising initial jobless claims, have driven the tight clustering of probabilities around modest September job gains, with the 50k-100k range holding a narrow 24.5% edge. Traders price in continued cooling from prior months amid the Federal Reserve’s post-rate-cut policy path, moderating wage growth, and mixed signals from ADP private payrolls and JOLTS openings. Key swing factors include potential revisions to prior estimates and sector hiring trends in services versus manufacturing. The upcoming September jobs report, scheduled for early October, remains the primary catalyst that could resolve the current deadlock between sub-50k and 100k-plus scenarios.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes