NOAA’s August update lowered its 2026 Atlantic outlook to a 75% chance of below-normal activity, citing a strengthening El Niño that increases vertical wind shear and suppresses tropical cyclone formation. Only two tropical storms—Arthur and Bertha—have formed so far, yielding an Accumulated Cyclone Energy index of just 2.6, far below the 1991–2020 median. Official guidance now centers on 7–13 named storms and 2–6 hurricanes for the full June–November season, aligning with Colorado State University’s reduced forecast of four hurricanes. Peak August–September conditions remain the key variable, as model consensus on El Niño persistence and steering patterns will determine whether activity stays suppressed or rebounds toward the market’s closely matched 4–6 versus 7+ outcomes.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Cuántos huracanes se formarán durante la temporada de huracanes del Atlántico en 2026?
¿Cuántos huracanes se formarán durante la temporada de huracanes del Atlántico en 2026?
7+ 39%
1-3 25%
0 7%
4-6 0
NUEVO
NUEVO
31 dic 2026
0
7%
1-3
25%
4-6
44%
7+
39%
7+ 39%
1-3 25%
0 7%
4-6 0
NUEVO
NUEVO
31 dic 2026
0
$79 Vol.
7%
1-3
$91 Vol.
25%
4-6
$316 Vol.
44%
7+
$10 Vol.
39%
This market will resolve according to the number of storms categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation and November 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET.
If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic during the specified timeframe this market will resolve to "0".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. The official count will be determined by the NHC (nhc.noaa.gov) advisories.NOAA’s August update lowered its 2026 Atlantic outlook to a 75% chance of below-normal activity, citing a strengthening El Niño that increases vertical wind shear and suppresses tropical cyclone formation. Only two tropical storms—Arthur and Bertha—have formed so far, yielding an Accumulated Cyclone Energy index of just 2.6, far below the 1991–2020 median. Official guidance now centers on 7–13 named storms and 2–6 hurricanes for the full June–November season, aligning with Colorado State University’s reduced forecast of four hurricanes. Peak August–September conditions remain the key variable, as model consensus on El Niño persistence and steering patterns will determine whether activity stays suppressed or rebounds toward the market’s closely matched 4–6 versus 7+ outcomes.
This market will resolve according to the number of storms categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation and November 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET.
If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic during the specified timeframe this market will resolve to "0".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. The official count will be determined by the NHC (nhc.noaa.gov) advisories.
If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic during the specified timeframe this market will resolve to "0".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. The official count will be determined by the NHC (nhc.noaa.gov) advisories.
Mercado abierto: Jul 28, 2026, 4:49 PM ET
Volumen
$495Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Jul 28, 2026, 4:49 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of storms categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation and November 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET.
If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic during the specified timeframe this market will resolve to "0".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. The official count will be determined by the NHC (nhc.noaa.gov) advisories.NOAA’s August update lowered its 2026 Atlantic outlook to a 75% chance of below-normal activity, citing a strengthening El Niño that increases vertical wind shear and suppresses tropical cyclone formation. Only two tropical storms—Arthur and Bertha—have formed so far, yielding an Accumulated Cyclone Energy index of just 2.6, far below the 1991–2020 median. Official guidance now centers on 7–13 named storms and 2–6 hurricanes for the full June–November season, aligning with Colorado State University’s reduced forecast of four hurricanes. Peak August–September conditions remain the key variable, as model consensus on El Niño persistence and steering patterns will determine whether activity stays suppressed or rebounds toward the market’s closely matched 4–6 versus 7+ outcomes.
This market will resolve according to the number of storms categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation and November 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET.
If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic during the specified timeframe this market will resolve to "0".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. The official count will be determined by the NHC (nhc.noaa.gov) advisories.
If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic during the specified timeframe this market will resolve to "0".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. The official count will be determined by the NHC (nhc.noaa.gov) advisories.
Volumen
$495Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Jul 28, 2026, 4:49 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...NOAA’s August update lowered its 2026 Atlantic outlook to a 75% chance of below-normal activity, citing a strengthening El Niño that increases vertical wind shear and suppresses tropical cyclone formation. Only two tropical storms—Arthur and Bertha—have formed so far, yielding an Accumulated Cyclone Energy index of just 2.6, far below the 1991–2020 median. Official guidance now centers on 7–13 named storms and 2–6 hurricanes for the full June–November season, aligning with Colorado State University’s reduced forecast of four hurricanes. Peak August–September conditions remain the key variable, as model consensus on El Niño persistence and steering patterns will determine whether activity stays suppressed or rebounds toward the market’s closely matched 4–6 versus 7+ outcomes.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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