Current forecasts from numerical weather models indicate a peak temperature near 30–31°C in Warsaw on August 10 under mostly sunny skies and light southerly flow, supporting the market’s tight clustering around those outcomes. Regional high-pressure dominance and limited cloud cover favor modest daytime warming consistent with late-summer climatology, while modest model spread in boundary-layer mixing and dew-point recovery creates the narrow gap between 30°C and 31°C implied probabilities. Official resolution will rest on the Polish Institute of Meteorology and Water Management maximum reading at the Warsaw-Okęcie station; any late adjustment in steering flow or convective timing could shift the final value by 1–2°C.