Mexico City's high elevation of roughly 2,240 meters keeps daytime maxima moderate even in August, when the rainy season typically brings afternoon cloud cover and showers that suppress solar heating. Current forecasts point to highs near 19–23 °C, with traders assigning the highest implied probabilities to 20–22 °C because models show persistent overcast skies and scattered precipitation on the 23rd rather than clear conditions that would allow temperatures to reach the seasonal 24 °C average. Key differentiating factors include the exact timing and intensity of rain, which can drop highs by 2–3 °C, versus any breaks in cloud cover that would permit modest warming. Updated National Meteorological Service observations and model runs through the afternoon will determine the final recorded maximum.