Recent ensemble forecasts from regional and global models position 28°C as the most likely daily maximum for Istanbul on August 10, aligning with the 49.5% market-implied probability. Stable high-pressure conditions and moderate northerly flow have kept temperatures near seasonal norms, with limited variability in the latest runs supporting a narrow range between 27°C and 29°C. The combined 93% probability on these three outcomes reflects trader consensus on forecast skill at short lead times, while small probabilities assigned to extremes account for potential model shifts or local measurement differences before resolution. Updated guidance from official meteorological services will be the key near-term catalyst.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿La temperatura más alta en Estambul el 10 de agosto?
¿La temperatura más alta en Estambul el 10 de agosto?
28°C 50%
27°C 27%
29°C 17%
26°C 3%
NUEVO
NUEVO
10 ago 2026
23°C o menos
<1%
24°C
1%
25°C
1%
26°C
3%
27°C
27%
28°C
50%
29°C
17%
30°C
3%
31°C
1%
32°C
1%
33°C o más
<1%
28°C 50%
27°C 27%
29°C 17%
26°C 3%
NUEVO
NUEVO
10 ago 2026
23°C o menos
$260 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$228 Vol.
1%
25°C
$116 Vol.
1%
26°C
$142 Vol.
3%
27°C
$107 Vol.
27%
28°C
$1,283 Vol.
50%
29°C
$203 Vol.
17%
30°C
$81 Vol.
3%
31°C
$57 Vol.
1%
32°C
$56 Vol.
1%
33°C o más
$218 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 10 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from regional and global models position 28°C as the most likely daily maximum for Istanbul on August 10, aligning with the 49.5% market-implied probability. Stable high-pressure conditions and moderate northerly flow have kept temperatures near seasonal norms, with limited variability in the latest runs supporting a narrow range between 27°C and 29°C. The combined 93% probability on these three outcomes reflects trader consensus on forecast skill at short lead times, while small probabilities assigned to extremes account for potential model shifts or local measurement differences before resolution. Updated guidance from official meteorological services will be the key near-term catalyst.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 10 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado abierto: Aug 8, 2026, 1:03 AM ET
Volumen
$2,748Fecha de finalización
10 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 8, 2026, 1:03 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 10 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from regional and global models position 28°C as the most likely daily maximum for Istanbul on August 10, aligning with the 49.5% market-implied probability. Stable high-pressure conditions and moderate northerly flow have kept temperatures near seasonal norms, with limited variability in the latest runs supporting a narrow range between 27°C and 29°C. The combined 93% probability on these three outcomes reflects trader consensus on forecast skill at short lead times, while small probabilities assigned to extremes account for potential model shifts or local measurement differences before resolution. Updated guidance from official meteorological services will be the key near-term catalyst.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 10 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$2,748Fecha de finalización
10 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 8, 2026, 1:03 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent ensemble forecasts from regional and global models position 28°C as the most likely daily maximum for Istanbul on August 10, aligning with the 49.5% market-implied probability. Stable high-pressure conditions and moderate northerly flow have kept temperatures near seasonal norms, with limited variability in the latest runs supporting a narrow range between 27°C and 29°C. The combined 93% probability on these three outcomes reflects trader consensus on forecast skill at short lead times, while small probabilities assigned to extremes account for potential model shifts or local measurement differences before resolution. Updated guidance from official meteorological services will be the key near-term catalyst.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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