Official forecasts from the National Weather Service and local outlets converge on a high near 100–101°F for Austin on August 4 under sunny skies and light southerly flow, consistent with a typical mid-summer pattern slightly above the long-term August average of 96–98°F. Model consensus and recent observations show minimal cloud cover or precipitation to suppress daytime heating, while dew points in the mid-60s support efficient boundary-layer mixing. The near-even split between the 98–99°F and 100–101°F bins reflects residual uncertainty in afternoon peak readings across official stations, where small differences in insolation timing or local advection can shift the maximum by a degree or two; higher bins remain low-probability given the absence of stronger ridging or downslope warming.