Recent U.S. military strikes on Iranian Revolutionary Guard positions and missile facilities on Greater Tunb Island in mid-July 2026, following similar operations in March, have intensified focus on the island's status amid broader Strait of Hormuz tensions and shipping disruptions. Iran has maintained control since seizing the disputed territory from what became the UAE in 1971, using it primarily for military infrastructure including anti-ship capabilities. The UAE continues to assert sovereignty claims through diplomatic channels without direct military involvement. These airstrikes target coastal defenses rather than altering territorial administration, yet they highlight escalation risks that could affect long-term Iranian operational control. Traders weigh ongoing conflict dynamics, potential further strikes, and any diplomatic or military developments that might shift effective authority before the market's resolution date.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿La Gran Isla Tunb ya no está bajo control iraní por...?
¿La Gran Isla Tunb ya no está bajo control iraní por...?
NUEVO
31 jul 2026
31 de julio
2%
31 de agosto
4%
$5,484 Vol.
31 de julio
$1,385 Vol.
2%
31 de agosto
$4,099 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Greater Tunb Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Greater Tunb Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Greater Tunb Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S. military strikes on Iranian Revolutionary Guard positions and missile facilities on Greater Tunb Island in mid-July 2026, following similar operations in March, have intensified focus on the island's status amid broader Strait of Hormuz tensions and shipping disruptions. Iran has maintained control since seizing the disputed territory from what became the UAE in 1971, using it primarily for military infrastructure including anti-ship capabilities. The UAE continues to assert sovereignty claims through diplomatic channels without direct military involvement. These airstrikes target coastal defenses rather than altering territorial administration, yet they highlight escalation risks that could affect long-term Iranian operational control. Traders weigh ongoing conflict dynamics, potential further strikes, and any diplomatic or military developments that might shift effective authority before the market's resolution date.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Greater Tunb Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Greater Tunb Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Greater Tunb Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Greater Tunb Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Greater Tunb Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Jul 20, 2026, 9:12 PM ET
Volumen
$5,484Fecha de finalización
31 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Jul 20, 2026, 9:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Greater Tunb Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Greater Tunb Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Greater Tunb Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S. military strikes on Iranian Revolutionary Guard positions and missile facilities on Greater Tunb Island in mid-July 2026, following similar operations in March, have intensified focus on the island's status amid broader Strait of Hormuz tensions and shipping disruptions. Iran has maintained control since seizing the disputed territory from what became the UAE in 1971, using it primarily for military infrastructure including anti-ship capabilities. The UAE continues to assert sovereignty claims through diplomatic channels without direct military involvement. These airstrikes target coastal defenses rather than altering territorial administration, yet they highlight escalation risks that could affect long-term Iranian operational control. Traders weigh ongoing conflict dynamics, potential further strikes, and any diplomatic or military developments that might shift effective authority before the market's resolution date.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Greater Tunb Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Greater Tunb Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Greater Tunb Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Greater Tunb Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Greater Tunb Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$5,484Fecha de finalización
31 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Jul 20, 2026, 9:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S. military strikes on Iranian Revolutionary Guard positions and missile facilities on Greater Tunb Island in mid-July 2026, following similar operations in March, have intensified focus on the island's status amid broader Strait of Hormuz tensions and shipping disruptions. Iran has maintained control since seizing the disputed territory from what became the UAE in 1971, using it primarily for military infrastructure including anti-ship capabilities. The UAE continues to assert sovereignty claims through diplomatic channels without direct military involvement. These airstrikes target coastal defenses rather than altering territorial administration, yet they highlight escalation risks that could affect long-term Iranian operational control. Traders weigh ongoing conflict dynamics, potential further strikes, and any diplomatic or military developments that might shift effective authority before the market's resolution date.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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