US military strikes on Abu Musa Island and Greater Tunb in recent days, part of broader escalation over Strait of Hormuz access, have intensified focus on the long-disputed Persian Gulf territory Iran has administered since 1971. The UAE continues to assert sovereignty claims over Abu Musa alongside the Tunbs, while Iranian forces maintain Revolutionary Guard bases, missiles, and air defenses there. Speculation centers on whether strikes could precede multinational efforts to reopen maritime routes or alter effective control, though no confirmed occupation or handover has occurred. These developments, amid ongoing Iran-Gulf state tensions, shape trader assessments of near-term shifts in administration.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿La isla de Abu Musa ya no está bajo control iraní por...?
¿La isla de Abu Musa ya no está bajo control iraní por...?
NUEVO
31 jul 2026
31 de julio
1%
31 de agosto
12%
$989 Vol.
31 de julio
$680 Vol.
1%
31 de agosto
$309 Vol.
12%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Abu Musa Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
“No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Abu Musa Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Abu Musa Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.US military strikes on Abu Musa Island and Greater Tunb in recent days, part of broader escalation over Strait of Hormuz access, have intensified focus on the long-disputed Persian Gulf territory Iran has administered since 1971. The UAE continues to assert sovereignty claims over Abu Musa alongside the Tunbs, while Iranian forces maintain Revolutionary Guard bases, missiles, and air defenses there. Speculation centers on whether strikes could precede multinational efforts to reopen maritime routes or alter effective control, though no confirmed occupation or handover has occurred. These developments, amid ongoing Iran-Gulf state tensions, shape trader assessments of near-term shifts in administration.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Abu Musa Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
“No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Abu Musa Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Abu Musa Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
“No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Abu Musa Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Abu Musa Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Jul 20, 2026, 9:13 PM ET
Volumen
$989Fecha de finalización
31 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Jul 20, 2026, 9:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Abu Musa Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
“No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Abu Musa Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Abu Musa Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.US military strikes on Abu Musa Island and Greater Tunb in recent days, part of broader escalation over Strait of Hormuz access, have intensified focus on the long-disputed Persian Gulf territory Iran has administered since 1971. The UAE continues to assert sovereignty claims over Abu Musa alongside the Tunbs, while Iranian forces maintain Revolutionary Guard bases, missiles, and air defenses there. Speculation centers on whether strikes could precede multinational efforts to reopen maritime routes or alter effective control, though no confirmed occupation or handover has occurred. These developments, amid ongoing Iran-Gulf state tensions, shape trader assessments of near-term shifts in administration.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Abu Musa Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
“No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Abu Musa Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Abu Musa Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
“No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Abu Musa Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Abu Musa Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$989Fecha de finalización
31 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Jul 20, 2026, 9:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US military strikes on Abu Musa Island and Greater Tunb in recent days, part of broader escalation over Strait of Hormuz access, have intensified focus on the long-disputed Persian Gulf territory Iran has administered since 1971. The UAE continues to assert sovereignty claims over Abu Musa alongside the Tunbs, while Iranian forces maintain Revolutionary Guard bases, missiles, and air defenses there. Speculation centers on whether strikes could precede multinational efforts to reopen maritime routes or alter effective control, though no confirmed occupation or handover has occurred. These developments, amid ongoing Iran-Gulf state tensions, shape trader assessments of near-term shifts in administration.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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