Elevated inflation readings and a hawkish Fed posture underpin the 60.5% market-implied probability of no change at the January 2027 FOMC meeting. July 2026 CPI eased only modestly to 3.4% year-over-year with core at 2.5%, while unemployment held at 4.1%, leaving officials reluctant to ease amid lingering energy-price pressures from geopolitical tensions. Recent July FOMC minutes and revised dot-plot projections signaled higher terminal rates through year-end 2026, shifting easing expectations into early 2027 and supporting the 21.5% odds of a 25-basis-point hike. Futures markets price gradual tightening ahead of the September meeting and August CPI release, reflecting trader consensus that restrictive monetary policy will persist absent clearer disinflation.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoNo change 61%
Aumento de 25 puntos básicos 22%
25 bps decrease 15%
50+ bps decrease 4.7%
$54,346 Vol.
$54,346 Vol.
27 ene 2027
50+ bps decrease
5%
25 bps decrease
15%
No change
61%
Aumento de 25 puntos básicos
22%
Aumento de 50+ puntos básicos
2%
No change 61%
Aumento de 25 puntos básicos 22%
25 bps decrease 15%
50+ bps decrease 4.7%
$54,346 Vol.
$54,346 Vol.
27 ene 2027
50+ bps decrease
$12,838 Vol.
5%
25 bps decrease
$10,999 Vol.
15%
No change
$16,164 Vol.
61%
Aumento de 25 puntos básicos
$12,056 Vol.
22%
Aumento de 50+ puntos básicos
$2,289 Vol.
2%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Elevated inflation readings and a hawkish Fed posture underpin the 60.5% market-implied probability of no change at the January 2027 FOMC meeting. July 2026 CPI eased only modestly to 3.4% year-over-year with core at 2.5%, while unemployment held at 4.1%, leaving officials reluctant to ease amid lingering energy-price pressures from geopolitical tensions. Recent July FOMC minutes and revised dot-plot projections signaled higher terminal rates through year-end 2026, shifting easing expectations into early 2027 and supporting the 21.5% odds of a 25-basis-point hike. Futures markets price gradual tightening ahead of the September meeting and August CPI release, reflecting trader consensus that restrictive monetary policy will persist absent clearer disinflation.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Mercado abierto: Jul 29, 2026, 8:39 PM ET
Volumen
$54,346Fecha de finalización
27 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Jul 29, 2026, 8:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Elevated inflation readings and a hawkish Fed posture underpin the 60.5% market-implied probability of no change at the January 2027 FOMC meeting. July 2026 CPI eased only modestly to 3.4% year-over-year with core at 2.5%, while unemployment held at 4.1%, leaving officials reluctant to ease amid lingering energy-price pressures from geopolitical tensions. Recent July FOMC minutes and revised dot-plot projections signaled higher terminal rates through year-end 2026, shifting easing expectations into early 2027 and supporting the 21.5% odds of a 25-basis-point hike. Futures markets price gradual tightening ahead of the September meeting and August CPI release, reflecting trader consensus that restrictive monetary policy will persist absent clearer disinflation.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volumen
$54,346Fecha de finalización
27 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Jul 29, 2026, 8:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elevated inflation readings and a hawkish Fed posture underpin the 60.5% market-implied probability of no change at the January 2027 FOMC meeting. July 2026 CPI eased only modestly to 3.4% year-over-year with core at 2.5%, while unemployment held at 4.1%, leaving officials reluctant to ease amid lingering energy-price pressures from geopolitical tensions. Recent July FOMC minutes and revised dot-plot projections signaled higher terminal rates through year-end 2026, shifting easing expectations into early 2027 and supporting the 21.5% odds of a 25-basis-point hike. Futures markets price gradual tightening ahead of the September meeting and August CPI release, reflecting trader consensus that restrictive monetary policy will persist absent clearer disinflation.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoRelacionado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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