Recent August CPI data, with core inflation rising 0.3% month-over-month against 0.2% expectations, has shifted trader sentiment toward a firmer Core PCE print for the same period. Analysts at major banks have revised August Core PCE forecasts higher, clustering near 0.25% and with some estimates reaching 0.30%, citing the shelter and services components that often carry through from CPI to PCE. July’s 0.2% Core PCE reading provides the recent base, but the hotter CPI print has narrowed the gap between the leading 0.3% and 0.2% outcomes on Polymarket. The Bureau of Economic Analysis release on September 30 remains the key catalyst, with market-implied odds reflecting the updated data trajectory and limited time before resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado0.3% 55%
0.2% 38%
0.4% 1.7%
0.1% 1.4%
$11,656 Vol.
$11,656 Vol.
30 sep 2026
≤-0.1%
1%
0.0%
<1%
0.1%
1%
0.2%
38%
0.3%
55%
0.4%
2%
0.5%+
1%
0.3% 55%
0.2% 38%
0.4% 1.7%
0.1% 1.4%
$11,656 Vol.
$11,656 Vol.
30 sep 2026
≤-0.1%
$603 Vol.
1%
0.0%
$646 Vol.
<1%
0.1%
$759 Vol.
1%
0.2%
$5,426 Vol.
38%
0.3%
$3,170 Vol.
55%
0.4%
$332 Vol.
2%
0.5%+
$719 Vol.
1%
This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 1-month period ending August 2026, seasonally adjusted, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 1-month period ending in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for August 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on September 30, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.2%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Recent August CPI data, with core inflation rising 0.3% month-over-month against 0.2% expectations, has shifted trader sentiment toward a firmer Core PCE print for the same period. Analysts at major banks have revised August Core PCE forecasts higher, clustering near 0.25% and with some estimates reaching 0.30%, citing the shelter and services components that often carry through from CPI to PCE. July’s 0.2% Core PCE reading provides the recent base, but the hotter CPI print has narrowed the gap between the leading 0.3% and 0.2% outcomes on Polymarket. The Bureau of Economic Analysis release on September 30 remains the key catalyst, with market-implied odds reflecting the updated data trajectory and limited time before resolution.
This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 1-month period ending August 2026, seasonally adjusted, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 1-month period ending in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for August 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on September 30, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.2%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 1-month period ending in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for August 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on September 30, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.2%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Mercado abierto: Aug 26, 2026, 8:05 PM ET
Volumen
$11,656Fecha de finalización
30 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 26, 2026, 8:05 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 1-month period ending August 2026, seasonally adjusted, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 1-month period ending in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for August 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on September 30, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.2%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Recent August CPI data, with core inflation rising 0.3% month-over-month against 0.2% expectations, has shifted trader sentiment toward a firmer Core PCE print for the same period. Analysts at major banks have revised August Core PCE forecasts higher, clustering near 0.25% and with some estimates reaching 0.30%, citing the shelter and services components that often carry through from CPI to PCE. July’s 0.2% Core PCE reading provides the recent base, but the hotter CPI print has narrowed the gap between the leading 0.3% and 0.2% outcomes on Polymarket. The Bureau of Economic Analysis release on September 30 remains the key catalyst, with market-implied odds reflecting the updated data trajectory and limited time before resolution.
This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 1-month period ending August 2026, seasonally adjusted, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 1-month period ending in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for August 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on September 30, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.2%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 1-month period ending in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for August 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on September 30, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.2%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Volumen
$11,656Fecha de finalización
30 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 26, 2026, 8:05 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent August CPI data, with core inflation rising 0.3% month-over-month against 0.2% expectations, has shifted trader sentiment toward a firmer Core PCE print for the same period. Analysts at major banks have revised August Core PCE forecasts higher, clustering near 0.25% and with some estimates reaching 0.30%, citing the shelter and services components that often carry through from CPI to PCE. July’s 0.2% Core PCE reading provides the recent base, but the hotter CPI print has narrowed the gap between the leading 0.3% and 0.2% outcomes on Polymarket. The Bureau of Economic Analysis release on September 30 remains the key catalyst, with market-implied odds reflecting the updated data trajectory and limited time before resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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