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icon for ¿La tercera empresa privada más grande a finales de septiembre?
Finanzas·OpenAI

¿La tercera empresa privada más grande a finales de septiembre?

icon for ¿La tercera empresa privada más grande a finales de septiembre?
Finanzas·OpenAI

¿La tercera empresa privada más grande a finales de septiembre?

sep 1

oct 1

sep 1

oct 1

Databricks 47%

Canva 47%

ByteDance 46%

OpenAI 46%

Polymarket
NUEVO

Databricks 47%

Canva 47%

ByteDance 46%

OpenAI 46%

Polymarket
NUEVO
icon for Databricks

Databricks

$0 Vol.

47%

icon for Canva

Canva

$0 Vol.

47%

icon for ByteDance

ByteDance

$0 Vol.

46%

icon for OpenAI

OpenAI

$0 Vol.

46%

icon for Perplexity

Perplexity

$0 Vol.

45%

icon for Neuralink

Neuralink

$0 Vol.

45%

icon for Revolut

Revolut

$0 Vol.

45%

icon for Stripe

Stripe

$0 Vol.

45%

icon for Anduril

Anduril

$0 Vol.

45%

icon for Anthropic

Anthropic

$0 Vol.

44%

This market will resolve to the listed company with the third largest private market valuation on September 30, 2026. NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day. If NPM has not published relevant data for all business dates in the specified period by 1:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the specified date, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on the third business day following the specified date. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available. If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the specified date, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing. If a company completes an IPO or direct listing before the specified date, this market will resolve based on its final NPM valuation published between market creation and the IPO or direct listing date, as this market is based on private market valuations only. If a listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies. If a listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only the NPM valuation achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution. If two or more companies are tied for the third highest valuation, the markets will resolve in favor of the company that achieved that valuation first. If the valuations were achieved on the same day, the market will resolve in favor of the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically. Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data. The resolution sources for this market are: https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/data?start_date=2025-12-31&view=valuation&companies=company-c62b8140-fdeb-428d-a9a6-d04eb3b24b49 https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/data?start_date=2025-12-31&view=valuation&companies=company-3e197763-4ff8-4d8c-bd1f-cc2792937757 https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/data?start_date=2025-12-31&view=valuation&companies=company-f364d2ab-34b7-48c9-a2b7-af62da804953 https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/data?start_date=2025-12-31&view=valuation&companies=company-5e0e75a3-96d6-4893-8f23-9d9bac0ec1db https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/data?start_date=2025-12-31&view=valuation&companies=company-53787f17-a704-47a9-895a-cb54833bdb1f https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/data?start_date=2025-12-31&view=valuation&companies=company-782c0a32-4727-4097-a40b-9a2602f243e7 https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/data?start_date=2025-12-31&view=valuation&companies=company-30839e0b-2730-4495-839f-1bf638fa9cca https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/data?start_date=2025-12-31&view=valuation&companies=company-802a7f97-3625-4614-a13d-d999cf139330 https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/data?start_date=2025-12-31&view=valuation&companies=company-70f3c3d1-565b-491a-83df-54d0c8b08186 https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/data?start_date=2025-12-31&view=valuation&companies=company-6edded11-6786-4392-9695-3cce6fda0de0.Recent secondary sales and funding rounds have kept Revolut, Anduril, and ByteDance in a tight race for third-largest private company status by end-September 2026, with market-implied odds clustered near 48 percent amid rapid valuation updates. Revolut’s July secondary share sale at $115 billion, driven by diversified payments and subscription revenue exceeding $6 billion annually, highlights fintech scaling, while Anduril’s Series H and ongoing talks around $100 billion reflect defense AI platform momentum from multi-billion government contracts. ByteDance maintains strong positioning through TikTok ecosystem revenue and secondary marks near $330–480 billion, though regulatory overhang adds volatility. In contrast, AI infrastructure names like Databricks and Anthropic sit higher overall, leaving limited room for near-term shifts without major new announcements before month-end. Traders weigh these execution milestones against the inherent uncertainty of private valuations.

This market will resolve to the listed company with the third largest private market valuation on September 30, 2026.

NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day.

If NPM has not published relevant data for all business dates in the specified period by 1:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the specified date, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on the third business day following the specified date. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available.

If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the specified date, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing.

If a company completes an IPO or direct listing before the specified date, this market will resolve based on its final NPM valuation published between market creation and the IPO or direct listing date, as this market is based on private market valuations only.

If a listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.

If a listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only the NPM valuation achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.

If two or more companies are tied for the third highest valuation, the markets will resolve in favor of the company that achieved that valuation first. If the valuations were achieved on the same day, the market will resolve in favor of the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.

Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.

The resolution sources for this market are:
https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/data?start_date=2025-12-31&view=valuation&companies=company-c62b8140-fdeb-428d-a9a6-d04eb3b24b49
https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/data?start_date=2025-12-31&view=valuation&companies=company-3e197763-4ff8-4d8c-bd1f-cc2792937757
https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/data?start_date=2025-12-31&view=valuation&companies=company-f364d2ab-34b7-48c9-a2b7-af62da804953
https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/data?start_date=2025-12-31&view=valuation&companies=company-5e0e75a3-96d6-4893-8f23-9d9bac0ec1db
https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/data?start_date=2025-12-31&view=valuation&companies=company-53787f17-a704-47a9-895a-cb54833bdb1f
https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/data?start_date=2025-12-31&view=valuation&companies=company-782c0a32-4727-4097-a40b-9a2602f243e7
https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/data?start_date=2025-12-31&view=valuation&companies=company-30839e0b-2730-4495-839f-1bf638fa9cca
https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/data?start_date=2025-12-31&view=valuation&companies=company-802a7f97-3625-4614-a13d-d999cf139330
https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/data?start_date=2025-12-31&view=valuation&companies=company-70f3c3d1-565b-491a-83df-54d0c8b08186
https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/data?start_date=2025-12-31&view=valuation&companies=company-6edded11-6786-4392-9695-3cce6fda0de0.
Volumen
$0
Fecha de finalización
1 oct 2026
Mercado abierto
Aug 31, 2026, 7:22 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the listed company with the third largest private market valuation on September 30, 2026. NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day. If NPM has not published relevant data for all business dates in the specified period by 1:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the specified date, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on the third business day following the specified date. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available. If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the specified date, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing. If a company completes an IPO or direct listing before the specified date, this market will resolve based on its final NPM valuation published between market creation and the IPO or direct listing date, as this market is based on private market valuations only. If a listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies. If a listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only the NPM valuation achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution. If two or more companies are tied for the third highest valuation, the markets will resolve in favor of the company that achieved that valuation first. If the valuations were achieved on the same day, the market will resolve in favor of the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically. Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data. The resolution sources for this market are: https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/data?start_date=2025-12-31&view=valuation&companies=company-c62b8140-fdeb-428d-a9a6-d04eb3b24b49 https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/data?start_date=2025-12-31&view=valuation&companies=company-3e197763-4ff8-4d8c-bd1f-cc2792937757 https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/data?start_date=2025-12-31&view=valuation&companies=company-f364d2ab-34b7-48c9-a2b7-af62da804953 https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/data?start_date=2025-12-31&view=valuation&companies=company-5e0e75a3-96d6-4893-8f23-9d9bac0ec1db https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/data?start_date=2025-12-31&view=valuation&companies=company-53787f17-a704-47a9-895a-cb54833bdb1f https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/data?start_date=2025-12-31&view=valuation&companies=company-782c0a32-4727-4097-a40b-9a2602f243e7 https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/data?start_date=2025-12-31&view=valuation&companies=company-30839e0b-2730-4495-839f-1bf638fa9cca https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/data?start_date=2025-12-31&view=valuation&companies=company-802a7f97-3625-4614-a13d-d999cf139330 https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/data?start_date=2025-12-31&view=valuation&companies=company-70f3c3d1-565b-491a-83df-54d0c8b08186 https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/data?start_date=2025-12-31&view=valuation&companies=company-6edded11-6786-4392-9695-3cce6fda0de0.
This market will resolve to the listed company with the third largest private market valuation on September 30, 2026. NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day. If NPM has not published relevant data for all business dates in the specified period by 1:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the specified date, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on the third business day following the specified date. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available. If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the specified date, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing. If a company completes an IPO or direct listing before the specified date, this market will resolve based on its final NPM valuation published between market creation and the IPO or direct listing date, as this market is based on private market valuations only. If a listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies. If a listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only the NPM valuation achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution. If two or more companies are tied for the third highest valuation, the markets will resolve in favor of the company that achieved that valuation first. If the valuations were achieved on the same day, the market will resolve in favor of the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically. Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data. The resolution sources for this market are: https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/data?start_date=2025-12-31&view=valuation&companies=company-c62b8140-fdeb-428d-a9a6-d04eb3b24b49 https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/data?start_date=2025-12-31&view=valuation&companies=company-3e197763-4ff8-4d8c-bd1f-cc2792937757 https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/data?start_date=2025-12-31&view=valuation&companies=company-f364d2ab-34b7-48c9-a2b7-af62da804953 https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/data?start_date=2025-12-31&view=valuation&companies=company-5e0e75a3-96d6-4893-8f23-9d9bac0ec1db https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/data?start_date=2025-12-31&view=valuation&companies=company-53787f17-a704-47a9-895a-cb54833bdb1f https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/data?start_date=2025-12-31&view=valuation&companies=company-782c0a32-4727-4097-a40b-9a2602f243e7 https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/data?start_date=2025-12-31&view=valuation&companies=company-30839e0b-2730-4495-839f-1bf638fa9cca https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/data?start_date=2025-12-31&view=valuation&companies=company-802a7f97-3625-4614-a13d-d999cf139330 https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/data?start_date=2025-12-31&view=valuation&companies=company-70f3c3d1-565b-491a-83df-54d0c8b08186 https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/data?start_date=2025-12-31&view=valuation&companies=company-6edded11-6786-4392-9695-3cce6fda0de0.Recent secondary sales and funding rounds have kept Revolut, Anduril, and ByteDance in a tight race for third-largest private company status by end-September 2026, with market-implied odds clustered near 48 percent amid rapid valuation updates. Revolut’s July secondary share sale at $115 billion, driven by diversified payments and subscription revenue exceeding $6 billion annually, highlights fintech scaling, while Anduril’s Series H and ongoing talks around $100 billion reflect defense AI platform momentum from multi-billion government contracts. ByteDance maintains strong positioning through TikTok ecosystem revenue and secondary marks near $330–480 billion, though regulatory overhang adds volatility. In contrast, AI infrastructure names like Databricks and Anthropic sit higher overall, leaving limited room for near-term shifts without major new announcements before month-end. Traders weigh these execution milestones against the inherent uncertainty of private valuations.

This market will resolve to the listed company with the third largest private market valuation on September 30, 2026.

NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day.

If NPM has not published relevant data for all business dates in the specified period by 1:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the specified date, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on the third business day following the specified date. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available.

If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the specified date, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing.

If a company completes an IPO or direct listing before the specified date, this market will resolve based on its final NPM valuation published between market creation and the IPO or direct listing date, as this market is based on private market valuations only.

If a listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.

If a listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only the NPM valuation achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.

If two or more companies are tied for the third highest valuation, the markets will resolve in favor of the company that achieved that valuation first. If the valuations were achieved on the same day, the market will resolve in favor of the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.

Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.

The resolution sources for this market are:
https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/data?start_date=2025-12-31&view=valuation&companies=company-c62b8140-fdeb-428d-a9a6-d04eb3b24b49
https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/data?start_date=2025-12-31&view=valuation&companies=company-3e197763-4ff8-4d8c-bd1f-cc2792937757
https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/data?start_date=2025-12-31&view=valuation&companies=company-f364d2ab-34b7-48c9-a2b7-af62da804953
https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/data?start_date=2025-12-31&view=valuation&companies=company-5e0e75a3-96d6-4893-8f23-9d9bac0ec1db
https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/data?start_date=2025-12-31&view=valuation&companies=company-53787f17-a704-47a9-895a-cb54833bdb1f
https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/data?start_date=2025-12-31&view=valuation&companies=company-782c0a32-4727-4097-a40b-9a2602f243e7
https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/data?start_date=2025-12-31&view=valuation&companies=company-30839e0b-2730-4495-839f-1bf638fa9cca
https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/data?start_date=2025-12-31&view=valuation&companies=company-802a7f97-3625-4614-a13d-d999cf139330
https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/data?start_date=2025-12-31&view=valuation&companies=company-70f3c3d1-565b-491a-83df-54d0c8b08186
https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/data?start_date=2025-12-31&view=valuation&companies=company-6edded11-6786-4392-9695-3cce6fda0de0.
Volumen
$0
Fecha de finalización
1 oct 2026
Mercado abierto
Aug 31, 2026, 7:22 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the listed company with the third largest private market valuation on September 30, 2026. NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day. If NPM has not published relevant data for all business dates in the specified period by 1:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the specified date, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on the third business day following the specified date. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available. If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the specified date, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing. If a company completes an IPO or direct listing before the specified date, this market will resolve based on its final NPM valuation published between market creation and the IPO or direct listing date, as this market is based on private market valuations only. If a listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies. If a listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only the NPM valuation achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution. If two or more companies are tied for the third highest valuation, the markets will resolve in favor of the company that achieved that valuation first. If the valuations were achieved on the same day, the market will resolve in favor of the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically. Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data. The resolution sources for this market are: https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/data?start_date=2025-12-31&view=valuation&companies=company-c62b8140-fdeb-428d-a9a6-d04eb3b24b49 https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/data?start_date=2025-12-31&view=valuation&companies=company-3e197763-4ff8-4d8c-bd1f-cc2792937757 https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/data?start_date=2025-12-31&view=valuation&companies=company-f364d2ab-34b7-48c9-a2b7-af62da804953 https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/data?start_date=2025-12-31&view=valuation&companies=company-5e0e75a3-96d6-4893-8f23-9d9bac0ec1db https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/data?start_date=2025-12-31&view=valuation&companies=company-53787f17-a704-47a9-895a-cb54833bdb1f https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/data?start_date=2025-12-31&view=valuation&companies=company-782c0a32-4727-4097-a40b-9a2602f243e7 https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/data?start_date=2025-12-31&view=valuation&companies=company-30839e0b-2730-4495-839f-1bf638fa9cca https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/data?start_date=2025-12-31&view=valuation&companies=company-802a7f97-3625-4614-a13d-d999cf139330 https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/data?start_date=2025-12-31&view=valuation&companies=company-70f3c3d1-565b-491a-83df-54d0c8b08186 https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/data?start_date=2025-12-31&view=valuation&companies=company-6edded11-6786-4392-9695-3cce6fda0de0.

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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"¿La tercera empresa privada más grande a finales de septiembre?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 10 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "Databricks" con 47%, seguido de "Canva" con 47%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 47¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 47% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

"¿La tercera empresa privada más grande a finales de septiembre?" es un mercado recién creado en Polymarket, lanzado el Aug 31, 2026. Como mercado nuevo, esta es tu oportunidad de ser uno de los primeros operadores en establecer las probabilidades y las señales de precio iniciales del mercado. También puedes guardar esta página en marcadores para seguir el volumen y la actividad de trading a medida que el mercado gana tracción.

Para operar en "¿La tercera empresa privada más grande a finales de septiembre?", explora los 10 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "¿La tercera empresa privada más grande a finales de septiembre?" es "Databricks" con 47%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 47% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "Canva" con 47%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "¿La tercera empresa privada más grande a finales de septiembre?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.