Trump’s second term, which runs through January 2029, shows no official signals of early departure, producing the 97% “No” consensus on resignation by December 31, 2026. Traders weigh the historical rarity of presidential resignations, Trump’s repeated public emphasis on completing his term, and the absence of credible White House or congressional pressure that would force such an outcome. Recent opposition commentary, including forecasts tied to 2026 midterms, has not altered positioning because it lacks supporting evidence from primary actors. The slim “Yes” tail reflects only remote contingencies such as acute health developments, family considerations, or an unprecedented crisis severe enough to prompt voluntary exit before year-end.