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icon for Wird der Super-Taifun Dolphin Japan treffen?

Wird der Super-Taifun Dolphin Japan treffen?

icon for Wird der Super-Taifun Dolphin Japan treffen?

Wird der Super-Taifun Dolphin Japan treffen?

Ja

56% Chance
Polymarket
NEU

$15,499 Vol.

Ja

56% Chance
Polymarket
NEU

$15,499 Vol.

This market resolves "Yes" if the center of Super Typhoon Dolphin's circulation physically crosses the coastline of any Japanese territory (including Okinawa, the Ryukyu Islands, and all main islands) on or before August 15, 2026. Resolution is determined by the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) position advisories placing the storm over Japanese land (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en), or by credible international news reporting confirming the storm hitting Japanese territory. The system's classification is determined by the single JMA advisory in effect immediately prior to the observed crossing. Once that advisory fixes classification at the time of impact, no subsequent real-time advisory, reclassification, or post-season best-track reanalysis may retroactively change the outcome. JMA position advisories are the primary resolution source. If a JMA advisory plots the center on Japanese land, the market resolves "Yes" regardless of what other sources say. If no JMA advisory plots the center on land but credible reporting confirms a crossing occurred between discrete advisory fixes, the market resolves "Yes." A disagreement exists only when a JMA advisory and credible reporting make contradictory claims about the storm's position at the same point in time; in that case, JMA is the default resolution source. In all cases, the classification is taken from the most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the confirmed crossing time. This is a purely geographic criterion: the storm's center must pass over Japanese land, regardless of whether JMA formally designates the event as "landfall" or "passage." The most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the crossing must classify Dolphin as a tropical cyclone (tropical depression or higher). If that advisory classifies the system as extratropical, dissipated, or absorbed, the crossing does not count and the market will resolve to "No". This market resolves "No" if Dolphin has been declared extratropical, dissipated, or absorbed on or before August 15 without having made landfall on Japanese territory, or if no landfall has physically occurred by the close of August 15, 2026.Current steering patterns and multi-model consensus from JTWC and JMA guidance place Super Typhoon Dolphin on a west-northwest track from its position near 20°N 159°E, positioning it to approach Japan’s Ogasawara Islands as a strong typhoon within the next 48–72 hours while maintaining Category 3–4 intensity. High ocean heat content and low shear have supported recent rapid intensification to super-typhoon status, but a building subtropical ridge is expected to force a gradual westward turn toward the Ryukyu Islands or East China Sea by August 5–6. This creates the near-even 55.5% market-implied odds, as some ensemble solutions keep the center south of mainland Japan while others allow peripheral impacts or a closer pass to Kyushu or the Nansei chain; updated forecast runs and ridge-trough interactions over the coming days will likely shift the consensus.

This market resolves "Yes" if the center of Super Typhoon Dolphin's circulation physically crosses the coastline of any Japanese territory (including Okinawa, the Ryukyu Islands, and all main islands) on or before August 15, 2026. Resolution is determined by the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) position advisories placing the storm over Japanese land (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en), or by credible international news reporting confirming the storm hitting Japanese territory. The system's classification is determined by the single JMA advisory in effect immediately prior to the observed crossing. Once that advisory fixes classification at the time of impact, no subsequent real-time advisory, reclassification, or post-season best-track reanalysis may retroactively change the outcome.

JMA position advisories are the primary resolution source. If a JMA advisory plots the center on Japanese land, the market resolves "Yes" regardless of what other sources say. If no JMA advisory plots the center on land but credible reporting confirms a crossing occurred between discrete advisory fixes, the market resolves "Yes." A disagreement exists only when a JMA advisory and credible reporting make contradictory claims about the storm's position at the same point in time; in that case, JMA is the default resolution source. In all cases, the classification is taken from the most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the confirmed crossing time.

This is a purely geographic criterion: the storm's center must pass over Japanese land, regardless of whether JMA formally designates the event as "landfall" or "passage." The most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the crossing must classify Dolphin as a tropical cyclone (tropical depression or higher). If that advisory classifies the system as extratropical, dissipated, or absorbed, the crossing does not count and the market will resolve to "No".

This market resolves "No" if Dolphin has been declared extratropical, dissipated, or absorbed on or before August 15 without having made landfall on Japanese territory, or if no landfall has physically occurred by the close of August 15, 2026.
Volumen
$15,499
Enddatum
16. Aug. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Jul 30, 2026, 11:53 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market resolves "Yes" if the center of Super Typhoon Dolphin's circulation physically crosses the coastline of any Japanese territory (including Okinawa, the Ryukyu Islands, and all main islands) on or before August 15, 2026. Resolution is determined by the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) position advisories placing the storm over Japanese land (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en), or by credible international news reporting confirming the storm hitting Japanese territory. The system's classification is determined by the single JMA advisory in effect immediately prior to the observed crossing. Once that advisory fixes classification at the time of impact, no subsequent real-time advisory, reclassification, or post-season best-track reanalysis may retroactively change the outcome. JMA position advisories are the primary resolution source. If a JMA advisory plots the center on Japanese land, the market resolves "Yes" regardless of what other sources say. If no JMA advisory plots the center on land but credible reporting confirms a crossing occurred between discrete advisory fixes, the market resolves "Yes." A disagreement exists only when a JMA advisory and credible reporting make contradictory claims about the storm's position at the same point in time; in that case, JMA is the default resolution source. In all cases, the classification is taken from the most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the confirmed crossing time. This is a purely geographic criterion: the storm's center must pass over Japanese land, regardless of whether JMA formally designates the event as "landfall" or "passage." The most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the crossing must classify Dolphin as a tropical cyclone (tropical depression or higher). If that advisory classifies the system as extratropical, dissipated, or absorbed, the crossing does not count and the market will resolve to "No". This market resolves "No" if Dolphin has been declared extratropical, dissipated, or absorbed on or before August 15 without having made landfall on Japanese territory, or if no landfall has physically occurred by the close of August 15, 2026.
This market resolves "Yes" if the center of Super Typhoon Dolphin's circulation physically crosses the coastline of any Japanese territory (including Okinawa, the Ryukyu Islands, and all main islands) on or before August 15, 2026. Resolution is determined by the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) position advisories placing the storm over Japanese land (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en), or by credible international news reporting confirming the storm hitting Japanese territory. The system's classification is determined by the single JMA advisory in effect immediately prior to the observed crossing. Once that advisory fixes classification at the time of impact, no subsequent real-time advisory, reclassification, or post-season best-track reanalysis may retroactively change the outcome. JMA position advisories are the primary resolution source. If a JMA advisory plots the center on Japanese land, the market resolves "Yes" regardless of what other sources say. If no JMA advisory plots the center on land but credible reporting confirms a crossing occurred between discrete advisory fixes, the market resolves "Yes." A disagreement exists only when a JMA advisory and credible reporting make contradictory claims about the storm's position at the same point in time; in that case, JMA is the default resolution source. In all cases, the classification is taken from the most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the confirmed crossing time. This is a purely geographic criterion: the storm's center must pass over Japanese land, regardless of whether JMA formally designates the event as "landfall" or "passage." The most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the crossing must classify Dolphin as a tropical cyclone (tropical depression or higher). If that advisory classifies the system as extratropical, dissipated, or absorbed, the crossing does not count and the market will resolve to "No". This market resolves "No" if Dolphin has been declared extratropical, dissipated, or absorbed on or before August 15 without having made landfall on Japanese territory, or if no landfall has physically occurred by the close of August 15, 2026.Current steering patterns and multi-model consensus from JTWC and JMA guidance place Super Typhoon Dolphin on a west-northwest track from its position near 20°N 159°E, positioning it to approach Japan’s Ogasawara Islands as a strong typhoon within the next 48–72 hours while maintaining Category 3–4 intensity. High ocean heat content and low shear have supported recent rapid intensification to super-typhoon status, but a building subtropical ridge is expected to force a gradual westward turn toward the Ryukyu Islands or East China Sea by August 5–6. This creates the near-even 55.5% market-implied odds, as some ensemble solutions keep the center south of mainland Japan while others allow peripheral impacts or a closer pass to Kyushu or the Nansei chain; updated forecast runs and ridge-trough interactions over the coming days will likely shift the consensus.

This market resolves "Yes" if the center of Super Typhoon Dolphin's circulation physically crosses the coastline of any Japanese territory (including Okinawa, the Ryukyu Islands, and all main islands) on or before August 15, 2026. Resolution is determined by the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) position advisories placing the storm over Japanese land (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en), or by credible international news reporting confirming the storm hitting Japanese territory. The system's classification is determined by the single JMA advisory in effect immediately prior to the observed crossing. Once that advisory fixes classification at the time of impact, no subsequent real-time advisory, reclassification, or post-season best-track reanalysis may retroactively change the outcome.

JMA position advisories are the primary resolution source. If a JMA advisory plots the center on Japanese land, the market resolves "Yes" regardless of what other sources say. If no JMA advisory plots the center on land but credible reporting confirms a crossing occurred between discrete advisory fixes, the market resolves "Yes." A disagreement exists only when a JMA advisory and credible reporting make contradictory claims about the storm's position at the same point in time; in that case, JMA is the default resolution source. In all cases, the classification is taken from the most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the confirmed crossing time.

This is a purely geographic criterion: the storm's center must pass over Japanese land, regardless of whether JMA formally designates the event as "landfall" or "passage." The most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the crossing must classify Dolphin as a tropical cyclone (tropical depression or higher). If that advisory classifies the system as extratropical, dissipated, or absorbed, the crossing does not count and the market will resolve to "No".

This market resolves "No" if Dolphin has been declared extratropical, dissipated, or absorbed on or before August 15 without having made landfall on Japanese territory, or if no landfall has physically occurred by the close of August 15, 2026.
Volumen
$15,499
Enddatum
16. Aug. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Jul 30, 2026, 11:53 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market resolves "Yes" if the center of Super Typhoon Dolphin's circulation physically crosses the coastline of any Japanese territory (including Okinawa, the Ryukyu Islands, and all main islands) on or before August 15, 2026. Resolution is determined by the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) position advisories placing the storm over Japanese land (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en), or by credible international news reporting confirming the storm hitting Japanese territory. The system's classification is determined by the single JMA advisory in effect immediately prior to the observed crossing. Once that advisory fixes classification at the time of impact, no subsequent real-time advisory, reclassification, or post-season best-track reanalysis may retroactively change the outcome. JMA position advisories are the primary resolution source. If a JMA advisory plots the center on Japanese land, the market resolves "Yes" regardless of what other sources say. If no JMA advisory plots the center on land but credible reporting confirms a crossing occurred between discrete advisory fixes, the market resolves "Yes." A disagreement exists only when a JMA advisory and credible reporting make contradictory claims about the storm's position at the same point in time; in that case, JMA is the default resolution source. In all cases, the classification is taken from the most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the confirmed crossing time. This is a purely geographic criterion: the storm's center must pass over Japanese land, regardless of whether JMA formally designates the event as "landfall" or "passage." The most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the crossing must classify Dolphin as a tropical cyclone (tropical depression or higher). If that advisory classifies the system as extratropical, dissipated, or absorbed, the crossing does not count and the market will resolve to "No". This market resolves "No" if Dolphin has been declared extratropical, dissipated, or absorbed on or before August 15 without having made landfall on Japanese territory, or if no landfall has physically occurred by the close of August 15, 2026.

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Vorsicht bei externen Links.

Häufig gestellte Fragen

„Wird der Super-Taifun Dolphin Japan treffen?" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket mit 2 möglichen Ergebnissen, bei dem Händler Anteile auf Basis ihrer Einschätzung kaufen und verkaufen. Das aktuell führende Ergebnis ist „Wird der Super-Taifun Dolphin Japan treffen?" mit 56%. Die Preise spiegeln Echtzeit-Wahrscheinlichkeiten der Community wider. Ein Anteilspreis von 56¢ bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 56% zuweist. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.

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