Recent diplomatic engagement, including the May 2026 Trump-Xi summit that established a U.S.-China Board of Trade to oversee reciprocal tariff rollbacks and non-tariff barrier reductions, has reinforced expectations of further progress. Existing frameworks from the November 2025 tactical deal—covering fentanyl tariff cuts, suspended reciprocal duties extended to November 10, 2026, and Chinese commitments on agricultural purchases—provide a foundation for additional formalization by year-end. Ongoing Section 301 reviews and bilateral working groups on critical minerals and market access add momentum, with traders viewing these institutional channels as likely to yield a defined agreement before December 31.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertUS x China tariff agreement by December 31?
US x China tariff agreement by December 31?
89% Chance
$220,590 Vol.
$220,590 Vol.
30. Dez. 2026
89% Chance
$220,590 Vol.
$220,590 Vol.
30. Dez. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Recent diplomatic engagement, including the May 2026 Trump-Xi summit that established a U.S.-China Board of Trade to oversee reciprocal tariff rollbacks and non-tariff barrier reductions, has reinforced expectations of further progress. Existing frameworks from the November 2025 tactical deal—covering fentanyl tariff cuts, suspended reciprocal duties extended to November 10, 2026, and Chinese commitments on agricultural purchases—provide a foundation for additional formalization by year-end. Ongoing Section 301 reviews and bilateral working groups on critical minerals and market access add momentum, with traders viewing these institutional channels as likely to yield a defined agreement before December 31.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Markt eröffnet: May 29, 2026, 9:10 AM ET
Volumen
$220,590Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
May 29, 2026, 9:10 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Recent diplomatic engagement, including the May 2026 Trump-Xi summit that established a U.S.-China Board of Trade to oversee reciprocal tariff rollbacks and non-tariff barrier reductions, has reinforced expectations of further progress. Existing frameworks from the November 2025 tactical deal—covering fentanyl tariff cuts, suspended reciprocal duties extended to November 10, 2026, and Chinese commitments on agricultural purchases—provide a foundation for additional formalization by year-end. Ongoing Section 301 reviews and bilateral working groups on critical minerals and market access add momentum, with traders viewing these institutional channels as likely to yield a defined agreement before December 31.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Volumen
$220,590Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
May 29, 2026, 9:10 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent diplomatic engagement, including the May 2026 Trump-Xi summit that established a U.S.-China Board of Trade to oversee reciprocal tariff rollbacks and non-tariff barrier reductions, has reinforced expectations of further progress. Existing frameworks from the November 2025 tactical deal—covering fentanyl tariff cuts, suspended reciprocal duties extended to November 10, 2026, and Chinese commitments on agricultural purchases—provide a foundation for additional formalization by year-end. Ongoing Section 301 reviews and bilateral working groups on critical minerals and market access add momentum, with traders viewing these institutional channels as likely to yield a defined agreement before December 31.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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