**Recent U.S.-Colombia security cooperation under President Abelardo de la Espriella has lowered the implied probability of a U.S. strike on Colombian territory.** De la Espriella took office in August 2026 after campaigning on a hardline approach to narcotrafficking and immediately aligned with the Trump administration. Colombia joined the Shield of the Americas coalition, accepted a $1 billion U.S. security assistance package, and authorized joint operations against armed groups and cartels. U.S. Southern Command visits, intelligence sharing, and discussions of Plan Patriota 2.0 have reinforced bilateral partnership rather than confrontation. Earlier tensions under former President Gustavo Petro—marked by U.S. boat strikes on suspected drug vessels and Colombian objections—have eased with the policy reset. Traders price the December 31 outcome at roughly 23 percent because current diplomatic and operational trends point to coordinated counter-narcotics efforts on land and at sea, not unilateral U.S. strikes inside Colombia. Scheduled joint planning and ongoing regional operations remain the primary near-term catalysts.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert$2,181,637 Vol.
30. Jan. 2026
31. Dezember
20%
$2,181,637 Vol.
31. Dezember
$1,104,422 Vol.
20%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Colombia is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.**Recent U.S.-Colombia security cooperation under President Abelardo de la Espriella has lowered the implied probability of a U.S. strike on Colombian territory.** De la Espriella took office in August 2026 after campaigning on a hardline approach to narcotrafficking and immediately aligned with the Trump administration. Colombia joined the Shield of the Americas coalition, accepted a $1 billion U.S. security assistance package, and authorized joint operations against armed groups and cartels. U.S. Southern Command visits, intelligence sharing, and discussions of Plan Patriota 2.0 have reinforced bilateral partnership rather than confrontation.
Earlier tensions under former President Gustavo Petro—marked by U.S. boat strikes on suspected drug vessels and Colombian objections—have eased with the policy reset. Traders price the December 31 outcome at roughly 23 percent because current diplomatic and operational trends point to coordinated counter-narcotics efforts on land and at sea, not unilateral U.S. strikes inside Colombia. Scheduled joint planning and ongoing regional operations remain the primary near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Colombia is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Markt eröffnet: Jan 4, 2026, 2:46 PM ET
Volumen
$2,181,637Enddatum
31. Jan. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 4, 2026, 2:46 PM ETAbwickler
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Colombia is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.**Recent U.S.-Colombia security cooperation under President Abelardo de la Espriella has lowered the implied probability of a U.S. strike on Colombian territory.** De la Espriella took office in August 2026 after campaigning on a hardline approach to narcotrafficking and immediately aligned with the Trump administration. Colombia joined the Shield of the Americas coalition, accepted a $1 billion U.S. security assistance package, and authorized joint operations against armed groups and cartels. U.S. Southern Command visits, intelligence sharing, and discussions of Plan Patriota 2.0 have reinforced bilateral partnership rather than confrontation.
Earlier tensions under former President Gustavo Petro—marked by U.S. boat strikes on suspected drug vessels and Colombian objections—have eased with the policy reset. Traders price the December 31 outcome at roughly 23 percent because current diplomatic and operational trends point to coordinated counter-narcotics efforts on land and at sea, not unilateral U.S. strikes inside Colombia. Scheduled joint planning and ongoing regional operations remain the primary near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Colombia is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Volumen
$2,181,637Enddatum
31. Jan. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 4, 2026, 2:46 PM ETAbwickler
0x65070BE91...**Recent U.S.-Colombia security cooperation under President Abelardo de la Espriella has lowered the implied probability of a U.S. strike on Colombian territory.** De la Espriella took office in August 2026 after campaigning on a hardline approach to narcotrafficking and immediately aligned with the Trump administration. Colombia joined the Shield of the Americas coalition, accepted a $1 billion U.S. security assistance package, and authorized joint operations against armed groups and cartels. U.S. Southern Command visits, intelligence sharing, and discussions of Plan Patriota 2.0 have reinforced bilateral partnership rather than confrontation. Earlier tensions under former President Gustavo Petro—marked by U.S. boat strikes on suspected drug vessels and Colombian objections—have eased with the policy reset. Traders price the December 31 outcome at roughly 23 percent because current diplomatic and operational trends point to coordinated counter-narcotics efforts on land and at sea, not unilateral U.S. strikes inside Colombia. Scheduled joint planning and ongoing regional operations remain the primary near-term catalysts.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Häufig gestellte Fragen