**Ongoing U.S.-Iran negotiations following 2025-2026 strikes on Iranian nuclear sites continue to shape trader views on whether the United States will gain physical possession of any Iranian enriched uranium.** U.S. and Israeli operations in June 2025 and early 2026 damaged enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, leaving much of Iran’s pre-strike stockpile—estimated by the IAEA at roughly 441 kg enriched to 60% and additional material at 20%—inaccessible under rubble or in unverified locations. The IAEA has had no access to these sites since mid-2025 and cannot confirm the current size, composition, or whereabouts of the stockpile. A June 2026 memorandum of understanding established a ceasefire framework, reopened the Strait of Hormuz, and set a 60-day window for final talks. It included Iranian reaffirmation against nuclear weapons development and an agreement in principle to address the enriched uranium stockpile via IAEA-supervised down-blending, though key details on enrichment suspension duration, material disposition, verification, and any transfer remain unresolved. U.S. positions have emphasized limits on enrichment and removal or neutralization of the stockpile, while Iranian statements have favored on-site handling and shorter pauses. As of early September 2026, inspectors remain barred from key sites, fighting has persisted intermittently, and no agreement has produced U.S. custody of the material. Market pricing reflects these structural and diplomatic hurdles, with low implied probabilities for near-term U.S. possession amid stalled verification and competing demands in the talks. Resolution hinges on verifiable transfer or seizure, distinct from announced plans or down-blending alone.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertDie USA erhalten iranisch angereichertes Uran durch...?
Die USA erhalten iranisch angereichertes Uran durch...?
$29,276,501 Vol.
30. Sep. 2026
30. September
1%
31. Dezember
5%
$29,276,501 Vol.
30. September
$117,870 Vol.
1%
31. Dezember
$2,229,293 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify.
Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure.
A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify.
Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure.
A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify.
Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure.
A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify.
Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure.
A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify.
Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure.
A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify.
Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure.
A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify.
Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure.
A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Ongoing U.S.-Iran negotiations following 2025-2026 strikes on Iranian nuclear sites continue to shape trader views on whether the United States will gain physical possession of any Iranian enriched uranium.**
U.S. and Israeli operations in June 2025 and early 2026 damaged enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, leaving much of Iran’s pre-strike stockpile—estimated by the IAEA at roughly 441 kg enriched to 60% and additional material at 20%—inaccessible under rubble or in unverified locations. The IAEA has had no access to these sites since mid-2025 and cannot confirm the current size, composition, or whereabouts of the stockpile.
A June 2026 memorandum of understanding established a ceasefire framework, reopened the Strait of Hormuz, and set a 60-day window for final talks. It included Iranian reaffirmation against nuclear weapons development and an agreement in principle to address the enriched uranium stockpile via IAEA-supervised down-blending, though key details on enrichment suspension duration, material disposition, verification, and any transfer remain unresolved. U.S. positions have emphasized limits on enrichment and removal or neutralization of the stockpile, while Iranian statements have favored on-site handling and shorter pauses.
As of early September 2026, inspectors remain barred from key sites, fighting has persisted intermittently, and no agreement has produced U.S. custody of the material. Market pricing reflects these structural and diplomatic hurdles, with low implied probabilities for near-term U.S. possession amid stalled verification and competing demands in the talks. Resolution hinges on verifiable transfer or seizure, distinct from announced plans or down-blending alone.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify.
Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure.
A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
“Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify.
Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure.
A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Markt eröffnet: Jul 1, 2026, 11:37 AM ET
Volumen
$29,276,501Enddatum
1. Jan. 2027Markt eröffnet
Jul 1, 2026, 11:37 AM ETAbwickler
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify.
Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure.
A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify.
Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure.
A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify.
Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure.
A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify.
Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure.
A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify.
Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure.
A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify.
Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure.
A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify.
Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure.
A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Ongoing U.S.-Iran negotiations following 2025-2026 strikes on Iranian nuclear sites continue to shape trader views on whether the United States will gain physical possession of any Iranian enriched uranium.**
U.S. and Israeli operations in June 2025 and early 2026 damaged enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, leaving much of Iran’s pre-strike stockpile—estimated by the IAEA at roughly 441 kg enriched to 60% and additional material at 20%—inaccessible under rubble or in unverified locations. The IAEA has had no access to these sites since mid-2025 and cannot confirm the current size, composition, or whereabouts of the stockpile.
A June 2026 memorandum of understanding established a ceasefire framework, reopened the Strait of Hormuz, and set a 60-day window for final talks. It included Iranian reaffirmation against nuclear weapons development and an agreement in principle to address the enriched uranium stockpile via IAEA-supervised down-blending, though key details on enrichment suspension duration, material disposition, verification, and any transfer remain unresolved. U.S. positions have emphasized limits on enrichment and removal or neutralization of the stockpile, while Iranian statements have favored on-site handling and shorter pauses.
As of early September 2026, inspectors remain barred from key sites, fighting has persisted intermittently, and no agreement has produced U.S. custody of the material. Market pricing reflects these structural and diplomatic hurdles, with low implied probabilities for near-term U.S. possession amid stalled verification and competing demands in the talks. Resolution hinges on verifiable transfer or seizure, distinct from announced plans or down-blending alone.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify.
Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure.
A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
“Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify.
Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure.
A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$29,276,501Enddatum
1. Jan. 2027Markt eröffnet
Jul 1, 2026, 11:37 AM ETAbwickler
0x65070BE91...**Ongoing U.S.-Iran negotiations following 2025-2026 strikes on Iranian nuclear sites continue to shape trader views on whether the United States will gain physical possession of any Iranian enriched uranium.** U.S. and Israeli operations in June 2025 and early 2026 damaged enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, leaving much of Iran’s pre-strike stockpile—estimated by the IAEA at roughly 441 kg enriched to 60% and additional material at 20%—inaccessible under rubble or in unverified locations. The IAEA has had no access to these sites since mid-2025 and cannot confirm the current size, composition, or whereabouts of the stockpile. A June 2026 memorandum of understanding established a ceasefire framework, reopened the Strait of Hormuz, and set a 60-day window for final talks. It included Iranian reaffirmation against nuclear weapons development and an agreement in principle to address the enriched uranium stockpile via IAEA-supervised down-blending, though key details on enrichment suspension duration, material disposition, verification, and any transfer remain unresolved. U.S. positions have emphasized limits on enrichment and removal or neutralization of the stockpile, while Iranian statements have favored on-site handling and shorter pauses. As of early September 2026, inspectors remain barred from key sites, fighting has persisted intermittently, and no agreement has produced U.S. custody of the material. Market pricing reflects these structural and diplomatic hurdles, with low implied probabilities for near-term U.S. possession amid stalled verification and competing demands in the talks. Resolution hinges on verifiable transfer or seizure, distinct from announced plans or down-blending alone.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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