A strong, rapidly intensifying El Niño event currently drives trader expectations for September 2026 global temperatures, with weekly Niño 3.4 anomalies reaching +2.6°C by late August and models projecting a very strong peak (over 90% chance of +2.0°C or greater) in October–December. This builds on background anthropogenic warming and follows 2024 as the record warmest year and 2025 among the top three, with El Niño’s lagged influence on atmospheric temperatures expected to elevate late-2026 monthly values. Market-implied odds favor second-hottest (57%) over first (36%) or third (25.5%) due to the event’s timing and strength relative to historical analogs, though internal variability and dataset differences introduce uncertainty in exact September ranking ahead of official NOAA and NASA releases.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert1., 2. oder 3. September 2026 am heißesten seit Bestehen?
1., 2. oder 3. September 2026 am heißesten seit Bestehen?
Zweitwärmster 57%
Viertniedrigster oder niedriger 38%
Heißester 36%
Drittwärmster 33%
NEU
NEU
30. Sep. 2026
Heißester
36%
Zweitwärmster
57%
Drittwärmster
33%
Viertniedrigster oder niedriger
38%
Zweitwärmster 57%
Viertniedrigster oder niedriger 38%
Heißester 36%
Drittwärmster 33%
NEU
NEU
30. Sep. 2026
Heißester
$273 Vol.
36%
Zweitwärmster
$0 Vol.
57%
Drittwärmster
$0 Vol.
33%
Viertniedrigster oder niedriger
$250 Vol.
38%
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 versus the data points available for all other Septembers on record.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.A strong, rapidly intensifying El Niño event currently drives trader expectations for September 2026 global temperatures, with weekly Niño 3.4 anomalies reaching +2.6°C by late August and models projecting a very strong peak (over 90% chance of +2.0°C or greater) in October–December. This builds on background anthropogenic warming and follows 2024 as the record warmest year and 2025 among the top three, with El Niño’s lagged influence on atmospheric temperatures expected to elevate late-2026 monthly values. Market-implied odds favor second-hottest (57%) over first (36%) or third (25.5%) due to the event’s timing and strength relative to historical analogs, though internal variability and dataset differences introduce uncertainty in exact September ranking ahead of official NOAA and NASA releases.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 versus the data points available for all other Septembers on record.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Markt eröffnet: Aug 28, 2026, 11:14 AM ET
Volumen
$523Enddatum
1. Okt. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 28, 2026, 11:14 AM ETAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 versus the data points available for all other Septembers on record.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.A strong, rapidly intensifying El Niño event currently drives trader expectations for September 2026 global temperatures, with weekly Niño 3.4 anomalies reaching +2.6°C by late August and models projecting a very strong peak (over 90% chance of +2.0°C or greater) in October–December. This builds on background anthropogenic warming and follows 2024 as the record warmest year and 2025 among the top three, with El Niño’s lagged influence on atmospheric temperatures expected to elevate late-2026 monthly values. Market-implied odds favor second-hottest (57%) over first (36%) or third (25.5%) due to the event’s timing and strength relative to historical analogs, though internal variability and dataset differences introduce uncertainty in exact September ranking ahead of official NOAA and NASA releases.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 versus the data points available for all other Septembers on record.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Volumen
$523Enddatum
1. Okt. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 28, 2026, 11:14 AM ETAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...A strong, rapidly intensifying El Niño event currently drives trader expectations for September 2026 global temperatures, with weekly Niño 3.4 anomalies reaching +2.6°C by late August and models projecting a very strong peak (over 90% chance of +2.0°C or greater) in October–December. This builds on background anthropogenic warming and follows 2024 as the record warmest year and 2025 among the top three, with El Niño’s lagged influence on atmospheric temperatures expected to elevate late-2026 monthly values. Market-implied odds favor second-hottest (57%) over first (36%) or third (25.5%) due to the event’s timing and strength relative to historical analogs, though internal variability and dataset differences introduce uncertainty in exact September ranking ahead of official NOAA and NASA releases.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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