Herb Conaway, the Democratic incumbent first elected in 2024 with 53.2 percent in a district that supported Kamala Harris by eight points, faces Republican nominee Michael McGuire in the November 2026 general election. The seat’s consistent Democratic lean, reflected in Cook Political Report’s Solid D rating and a partisan voting index of D+5, underpins trader consensus on a strong Democratic hold. Conaway’s unopposed primary and the district’s voter composition in Burlington, Mercer, and Monmouth counties further reinforce this positioning. A late scandal, significant health development affecting the incumbent, or an unusually strong national Republican wave could narrow the margin, though such shifts remain low-probability given the district’s established voting patterns.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertNJ-03 Wahlsieger
NJ-03 Wahlsieger
$26,418 Vol.
$26,418 Vol.
2. Nov. 2026
Demokratische Partei
94%
Republikanische Partei
7%
$26,418 Vol.
$26,418 Vol.
2. Nov. 2026
Demokratische Partei
$12,895 Vol.
94%
Republikanische Partei
$13,523 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Herb Conaway, the Democratic incumbent first elected in 2024 with 53.2 percent in a district that supported Kamala Harris by eight points, faces Republican nominee Michael McGuire in the November 2026 general election. The seat’s consistent Democratic lean, reflected in Cook Political Report’s Solid D rating and a partisan voting index of D+5, underpins trader consensus on a strong Democratic hold. Conaway’s unopposed primary and the district’s voter composition in Burlington, Mercer, and Monmouth counties further reinforce this positioning. A late scandal, significant health development affecting the incumbent, or an unusually strong national Republican wave could narrow the margin, though such shifts remain low-probability given the district’s established voting patterns.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Markt eröffnet: Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
Volumen
$26,418Enddatum
3. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Herb Conaway, the Democratic incumbent first elected in 2024 with 53.2 percent in a district that supported Kamala Harris by eight points, faces Republican nominee Michael McGuire in the November 2026 general election. The seat’s consistent Democratic lean, reflected in Cook Political Report’s Solid D rating and a partisan voting index of D+5, underpins trader consensus on a strong Democratic hold. Conaway’s unopposed primary and the district’s voter composition in Burlington, Mercer, and Monmouth counties further reinforce this positioning. A late scandal, significant health development affecting the incumbent, or an unusually strong national Republican wave could narrow the margin, though such shifts remain low-probability given the district’s established voting patterns.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$26,418Enddatum
3. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Herb Conaway, the Democratic incumbent first elected in 2024 with 53.2 percent in a district that supported Kamala Harris by eight points, faces Republican nominee Michael McGuire in the November 2026 general election. The seat’s consistent Democratic lean, reflected in Cook Political Report’s Solid D rating and a partisan voting index of D+5, underpins trader consensus on a strong Democratic hold. Conaway’s unopposed primary and the district’s voter composition in Burlington, Mercer, and Monmouth counties further reinforce this positioning. A late scandal, significant health development affecting the incumbent, or an unusually strong national Republican wave could narrow the margin, though such shifts remain low-probability given the district’s established voting patterns.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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