Nigel Farage’s resignation in July 2026 triggered the Clacton by-election held on 13 August, which he won with 63.3% of the vote and immediately resumed his seat as Reform UK MP. With the constituency now represented by an active incumbent who has shown no further intention to vacate and with the ongoing parliamentary investigation into his finances producing no new procedural trigger for another vacancy, traders assign a 71% probability against a second by-election before the end of 2026. No scheduled elections, party leadership changes, or health-related developments point to an imminent seat vacancy in the remaining months of the year.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertEine weitere Clacton-Nachwahl im Jahr 2026?
Ja
29% Chance
NEU
NEU
31. Dez. 2026
Ja
29% Chance
NEU
NEU
31. Dez. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a writ calling for a parliamentary by-election in the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is issued by the UK Clerk of the Crown in Chancery between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Writs issued in connection with a United Kingdom general election will not qualify.
The issuance of a writ must be confirmed within the specified timeframe to qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United Kingdom, including the UK Parliament and the relevant local government conducting the election; however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Nigel Farage’s resignation in July 2026 triggered the Clacton by-election held on 13 August, which he won with 63.3% of the vote and immediately resumed his seat as Reform UK MP. With the constituency now represented by an active incumbent who has shown no further intention to vacate and with the ongoing parliamentary investigation into his finances producing no new procedural trigger for another vacancy, traders assign a 71% probability against a second by-election before the end of 2026. No scheduled elections, party leadership changes, or health-related developments point to an imminent seat vacancy in the remaining months of the year.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a writ calling for a parliamentary by-election in the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is issued by the UK Clerk of the Crown in Chancery between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Writs issued in connection with a United Kingdom general election will not qualify.
The issuance of a writ must be confirmed within the specified timeframe to qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United Kingdom, including the UK Parliament and the relevant local government conducting the election; however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Writs issued in connection with a United Kingdom general election will not qualify.
The issuance of a writ must be confirmed within the specified timeframe to qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United Kingdom, including the UK Parliament and the relevant local government conducting the election; however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Markt eröffnet: Aug 18, 2026, 3:44 PM ET
Volumen
$0Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 18, 2026, 3:44 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a writ calling for a parliamentary by-election in the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is issued by the UK Clerk of the Crown in Chancery between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Writs issued in connection with a United Kingdom general election will not qualify.
The issuance of a writ must be confirmed within the specified timeframe to qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United Kingdom, including the UK Parliament and the relevant local government conducting the election; however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Nigel Farage’s resignation in July 2026 triggered the Clacton by-election held on 13 August, which he won with 63.3% of the vote and immediately resumed his seat as Reform UK MP. With the constituency now represented by an active incumbent who has shown no further intention to vacate and with the ongoing parliamentary investigation into his finances producing no new procedural trigger for another vacancy, traders assign a 71% probability against a second by-election before the end of 2026. No scheduled elections, party leadership changes, or health-related developments point to an imminent seat vacancy in the remaining months of the year.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a writ calling for a parliamentary by-election in the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is issued by the UK Clerk of the Crown in Chancery between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Writs issued in connection with a United Kingdom general election will not qualify.
The issuance of a writ must be confirmed within the specified timeframe to qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United Kingdom, including the UK Parliament and the relevant local government conducting the election; however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Writs issued in connection with a United Kingdom general election will not qualify.
The issuance of a writ must be confirmed within the specified timeframe to qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United Kingdom, including the UK Parliament and the relevant local government conducting the election; however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volumen
$0Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 18, 2026, 3:44 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Nigel Farage’s resignation in July 2026 triggered the Clacton by-election held on 13 August, which he won with 63.3% of the vote and immediately resumed his seat as Reform UK MP. With the constituency now represented by an active incumbent who has shown no further intention to vacate and with the ongoing parliamentary investigation into his finances producing no new procedural trigger for another vacancy, traders assign a 71% probability against a second by-election before the end of 2026. No scheduled elections, party leadership changes, or health-related developments point to an imminent seat vacancy in the remaining months of the year.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert



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