Paul St-Pierre Plamondon leads the market at 63.5% because recent polling aggregates and seat projections show the Parti Québécois holding a narrow but consistent edge in popular support and the strongest path to a plurality of seats in the October 5 election. The PQ has maintained roughly 28-30% support among decided voters in late August and early September surveys, drawing strength from francophone voters on issues such as health-care reform and provincial autonomy. Christine Fréchette sits at 22.3% as the incumbent CAQ leader after her April leadership win and swearing-in as premier, with her party closing gaps through campaign pledges on daycare and efficiency while attacking the PQ’s referendum plans. Charles Milliard trails at 4.8% amid Liberal declines, while other candidates remain marginal. Traders appear to weigh the PQ’s polling momentum and projected seat advantage against the campaign’s remaining debates and undecided voters.