With the Michoacán gubernatorial election still more than a year away, trader consensus reflects a highly fragmented field where no aspirant exceeds 43% implied probability. Recent June and July 2026 surveys show Morena holding a narrow party-level edge near 32%, followed by independents and PAN, yet individual preferences remain split among figures such as Raúl Morón Orozco, Carlos Torres Piña, Alfonso Martínez Alcázar, Grecia Quiroz, and several others in the low-to-mid teens or below. Internal party polling reveals substantial “none” responses and competing local profiles, while the viability of independent bids further disperses support. Primary nominations, major endorsements, and updated statewide surveys closer to 2027 could consolidate backing and shift probabilities.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertAlfonso Martínez Alcázar 43%
Marko Cortés Mendoza 32%
Edna Martínez Nambo 32%
Carlos Herrera Tello 32%

Alfonso Martínez Alcázar
43%

Marko Cortés Mendoza
32%

Edna Martínez Nambo
32%

Carlos Herrera Tello
32%

Víctor Manuel Manríquez
32%

Grecia Quiroz
32%

Adriana Hernández Íñiguez
32%

Leinad Abigail Rojas Elenes
32%

Netzahualcóyotl Alarcón Pedraza
31%

Gladyz Butanda Macías
30%

Celeste Ascencio Ortega
30%

Ana Lilia Guillén Quiroz
30%

Esteban González Nava
30%

Ernesto Núñez Aguilar
30%

Germán Martínez Cázares
30%

Daniela de los Santos
30%

Raúl Morón Orozco
30%

Carlos Torres Piña
30%

Fabiola Alanís Sámano
30%

Gabriela Molina Aguilar
30%

Netzahualcóyotl Alanís Luna
30%

Guillermo Valencia Reyes
30%
Alfonso Martínez Alcázar 43%
Marko Cortés Mendoza 32%
Edna Martínez Nambo 32%
Carlos Herrera Tello 32%

Alfonso Martínez Alcázar
43%

Marko Cortés Mendoza
32%

Edna Martínez Nambo
32%

Carlos Herrera Tello
32%

Víctor Manuel Manríquez
32%

Grecia Quiroz
32%

Adriana Hernández Íñiguez
32%

Leinad Abigail Rojas Elenes
32%

Netzahualcóyotl Alarcón Pedraza
31%

Gladyz Butanda Macías
30%

Celeste Ascencio Ortega
30%

Ana Lilia Guillén Quiroz
30%

Esteban González Nava
30%

Ernesto Núñez Aguilar
30%

Germán Martínez Cázares
30%

Daniela de los Santos
30%

Raúl Morón Orozco
30%

Carlos Torres Piña
30%

Fabiola Alanís Sámano
30%

Gabriela Molina Aguilar
30%

Netzahualcóyotl Alanís Luna
30%

Guillermo Valencia Reyes
30%
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Michoacán gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify.
If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Michoacán and Mexico, including the Electoral Institute of Michoacán and the National Electoral Institute of Mexico.
Markt eröffnet: Aug 6, 2026, 5:09 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Michoacán gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify.
If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Michoacán and Mexico, including the Electoral Institute of Michoacán and the National Electoral Institute of Mexico.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...With the Michoacán gubernatorial election still more than a year away, trader consensus reflects a highly fragmented field where no aspirant exceeds 43% implied probability. Recent June and July 2026 surveys show Morena holding a narrow party-level edge near 32%, followed by independents and PAN, yet individual preferences remain split among figures such as Raúl Morón Orozco, Carlos Torres Piña, Alfonso Martínez Alcázar, Grecia Quiroz, and several others in the low-to-mid teens or below. Internal party polling reveals substantial “none” responses and competing local profiles, while the viability of independent bids further disperses support. Primary nominations, major endorsements, and updated statewide surveys closer to 2027 could consolidate backing and shift probabilities.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert


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