Incumbent Republican Kelly Ayotte holds a consistent but modest polling edge over Democratic challenger Cinde Warmington in the 2026 New Hampshire gubernatorial race, with recent surveys from late June showing Ayotte at 44-45% and Warmington at 37-39%. This positioning keeps implied probabilities clustered around Republican margins of 3-9 points, as traders weigh Ayotte’s incumbency advantages and the state’s history of narrow gubernatorial contests against Warmington’s executive council experience and Democratic turnout potential. Primary elections on September 8 remain the next key catalyst, with filing deadlines and candidate positioning in the preceding weeks likely to influence general-election dynamics before November 3. The closely matched “Person A” and “Other” outcomes at 50% each underscore uncertainty over whether an independent or third-party factor could narrow the spread further.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertRepublikaner 12-15 % 47%
Republikaner 3-6% 46%
Republikaner 0-3% 46%
Republikaner 9-12% 45%
NEU
NEU
3. Nov. 2026
Republikaner 18%+
41%
Republikaner 15-18%
44%
Republikaner 12-15 %
47%
Republikaner 9-12%
45%
Republikaner 6-9%
43%
Republikaner 3-6%
46%
Republikaner 0-3%
46%
Demokrat 0–3 %
26%
Demokrat 3-6%
19%
Demokrat 6 %+
19%
Republikaner 12-15 % 47%
Republikaner 3-6% 46%
Republikaner 0-3% 46%
Republikaner 9-12% 45%
NEU
NEU
3. Nov. 2026
Republikaner 18%+
$0 Vol.
41%
Republikaner 15-18%
$0 Vol.
44%
Republikaner 12-15 %
$0 Vol.
47%
Republikaner 9-12%
$0 Vol.
45%
Republikaner 6-9%
$0 Vol.
43%
Republikaner 3-6%
$0 Vol.
46%
Republikaner 0-3%
$0 Vol.
46%
Demokrat 0–3 %
$41 Vol.
26%
Demokrat 3-6%
$0 Vol.
19%
Demokrat 6 %+
$0 Vol.
19%
The 2026 New Hampshire gubernatorial election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 New Hampshire gubernatorial election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Incumbent Republican Kelly Ayotte holds a consistent but modest polling edge over Democratic challenger Cinde Warmington in the 2026 New Hampshire gubernatorial race, with recent surveys from late June showing Ayotte at 44-45% and Warmington at 37-39%. This positioning keeps implied probabilities clustered around Republican margins of 3-9 points, as traders weigh Ayotte’s incumbency advantages and the state’s history of narrow gubernatorial contests against Warmington’s executive council experience and Democratic turnout potential. Primary elections on September 8 remain the next key catalyst, with filing deadlines and candidate positioning in the preceding weeks likely to influence general-election dynamics before November 3. The closely matched “Person A” and “Other” outcomes at 50% each underscore uncertainty over whether an independent or third-party factor could narrow the spread further.
The 2026 New Hampshire gubernatorial election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 New Hampshire gubernatorial election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 New Hampshire gubernatorial election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Markt eröffnet: Aug 5, 2026, 4:20 PM ET
Volumen
$41Enddatum
3. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 5, 2026, 4:20 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 New Hampshire gubernatorial election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 New Hampshire gubernatorial election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Incumbent Republican Kelly Ayotte holds a consistent but modest polling edge over Democratic challenger Cinde Warmington in the 2026 New Hampshire gubernatorial race, with recent surveys from late June showing Ayotte at 44-45% and Warmington at 37-39%. This positioning keeps implied probabilities clustered around Republican margins of 3-9 points, as traders weigh Ayotte’s incumbency advantages and the state’s history of narrow gubernatorial contests against Warmington’s executive council experience and Democratic turnout potential. Primary elections on September 8 remain the next key catalyst, with filing deadlines and candidate positioning in the preceding weeks likely to influence general-election dynamics before November 3. The closely matched “Person A” and “Other” outcomes at 50% each underscore uncertainty over whether an independent or third-party factor could narrow the spread further.
The 2026 New Hampshire gubernatorial election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 New Hampshire gubernatorial election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 New Hampshire gubernatorial election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$41Enddatum
3. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 5, 2026, 4:20 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Incumbent Republican Kelly Ayotte holds a consistent but modest polling edge over Democratic challenger Cinde Warmington in the 2026 New Hampshire gubernatorial race, with recent surveys from late June showing Ayotte at 44-45% and Warmington at 37-39%. This positioning keeps implied probabilities clustered around Republican margins of 3-9 points, as traders weigh Ayotte’s incumbency advantages and the state’s history of narrow gubernatorial contests against Warmington’s executive council experience and Democratic turnout potential. Primary elections on September 8 remain the next key catalyst, with filing deadlines and candidate positioning in the preceding weeks likely to influence general-election dynamics before November 3. The closely matched “Person A” and “Other” outcomes at 50% each underscore uncertainty over whether an independent or third-party factor could narrow the spread further.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertVerwandte
Wird der Kandidat der Demokratischen Partei die Senatswahl 2026 in New Hampshire mit 18 % oder mehr Vorsprung gewinnen?
42%
Ja
Wird der Kandidat der Demokratischen Partei die Gouverneurswahl in Massachusetts 2026 mit 15–20 % Vorsprung gewinnen?
45%
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Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Maine gubernatorial election by 10%-15%?
46%
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Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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