Fragmented support across more than a dozen candidates, with voters selecting two senators, keeps second-place probabilities tightly clustered among Janaina Riva, José Medeiros, Mauro Mendes, Carlos Fávaro, and Pedro Taques. Mid-August Real Time Big Data polling shows Mendes and Riva leading consolidated first- and second-preference totals in the mid-20s while the trailing group sits in the low teens, reflecting a technical tie within margins of error after recent party conventions formalized candidacies. Trader consensus assigns Riva the highest implied probability for second place amid this dispersion. Further polling releases, candidate debates, or endorsements before the October 4 election could consolidate preferences and widen gaps, while sustained fragmentation would preserve the current tightness.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertJose Medeiros 40%
Galvan 39%
Professor Nelson Ferreira 38%
Mauro Mendes 27%
NEU
NEU
4. Okt. 2026
Jose Medeiros
40%
Galvan
39%
Professor Nelson Ferreira
38%
Mauro Mendes
27%
Fávaro
25%
Coronel Darwin
25%
Janaina Riva
24%
Beny Godoy
23%
Pedro Taques
21%
Margareth Buzetti
16%
Jose Medeiros 40%
Galvan 39%
Professor Nelson Ferreira 38%
Mauro Mendes 27%
NEU
NEU
4. Okt. 2026
Jose Medeiros
$43 Vol.
40%
Galvan
$43 Vol.
39%
Professor Nelson Ferreira
$43 Vol.
38%
Mauro Mendes
$43 Vol.
27%
Fávaro
$43 Vol.
25%
Coronel Darwin
$43 Vol.
25%
Janaina Riva
$143 Vol.
24%
Beny Godoy
$43 Vol.
23%
Pedro Taques
$43 Vol.
21%
Margareth Buzetti
$43 Vol.
16%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Mato Grosso is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Fragmented support across more than a dozen candidates, with voters selecting two senators, keeps second-place probabilities tightly clustered among Janaina Riva, José Medeiros, Mauro Mendes, Carlos Fávaro, and Pedro Taques. Mid-August Real Time Big Data polling shows Mendes and Riva leading consolidated first- and second-preference totals in the mid-20s while the trailing group sits in the low teens, reflecting a technical tie within margins of error after recent party conventions formalized candidacies. Trader consensus assigns Riva the highest implied probability for second place amid this dispersion. Further polling releases, candidate debates, or endorsements before the October 4 election could consolidate preferences and widen gaps, while sustained fragmentation would preserve the current tightness.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Mato Grosso is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Markt eröffnet: Aug 17, 2026, 6:03 AM ET
Volumen
$532Enddatum
4. Okt. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 17, 2026, 6:03 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Mato Grosso is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Fragmented support across more than a dozen candidates, with voters selecting two senators, keeps second-place probabilities tightly clustered among Janaina Riva, José Medeiros, Mauro Mendes, Carlos Fávaro, and Pedro Taques. Mid-August Real Time Big Data polling shows Mendes and Riva leading consolidated first- and second-preference totals in the mid-20s while the trailing group sits in the low teens, reflecting a technical tie within margins of error after recent party conventions formalized candidacies. Trader consensus assigns Riva the highest implied probability for second place amid this dispersion. Further polling releases, candidate debates, or endorsements before the October 4 election could consolidate preferences and widen gaps, while sustained fragmentation would preserve the current tightness.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Mato Grosso is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volumen
$532Enddatum
4. Okt. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 17, 2026, 6:03 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Fragmented support across more than a dozen candidates, with voters selecting two senators, keeps second-place probabilities tightly clustered among Janaina Riva, José Medeiros, Mauro Mendes, Carlos Fávaro, and Pedro Taques. Mid-August Real Time Big Data polling shows Mendes and Riva leading consolidated first- and second-preference totals in the mid-20s while the trailing group sits in the low teens, reflecting a technical tie within margins of error after recent party conventions formalized candidacies. Trader consensus assigns Riva the highest implied probability for second place amid this dispersion. Further polling releases, candidate debates, or endorsements before the October 4 election could consolidate preferences and widen gaps, while sustained fragmentation would preserve the current tightness.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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