Warm, humid southerly flow and limited nocturnal cooling under partly cloudy skies position overnight lows in Austin near 77°F for September 4, aligning with National Weather Service forecasts and recent model consensus. Persistent high pressure, dew points in the low 70s, and heat indices above 100°F during the day have maintained elevated minimum temperatures well above the 1991–2020 climatological average low of about 71°F. Recent observations from Austin-Bergstrom and nearby stations show similar patterns over the past several days, with no cold front or significant rain to enhance radiational cooling. Traders appear to weigh these factors heavily, assigning the highest implied probabilities to the 78–81°F bins while discounting cooler outcomes below 74°F given the current atmospheric setup. Final resolution will depend on official overnight readings through early morning on September 5.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertNiedrigste Temperatur in Austin am 4. September?
Niedrigste Temperatur in Austin am 4. September?
69°F oder darunter 94%
72-73 °F 85%
78-79°F 49%
74-75°F 46%
$975 Vol.
$975 Vol.
4. Sep. 2026
69°F oder darunter
94%
70-71°F
1%
72-73 °F
85%
74-75°F
46%
76-77°F
42%
78-79°F
49%
80-81°F
48%
82-83 °F
<1%
84-85°F
<1%
86-87°F
<1%
88°F oder höher
<1%
69°F oder darunter 94%
72-73 °F 85%
78-79°F 49%
74-75°F 46%
$975 Vol.
$975 Vol.
4. Sep. 2026
69°F oder darunter
$55 Vol.
94%
70-71°F
$112 Vol.
1%
72-73 °F
$47 Vol.
85%
74-75°F
$0 Vol.
46%
76-77°F
$1 Vol.
42%
78-79°F
$1 Vol.
49%
80-81°F
$137 Vol.
48%
82-83 °F
$145 Vol.
<1%
84-85°F
$102 Vol.
<1%
86-87°F
$107 Vol.
<1%
88°F oder höher
$267 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Warm, humid southerly flow and limited nocturnal cooling under partly cloudy skies position overnight lows in Austin near 77°F for September 4, aligning with National Weather Service forecasts and recent model consensus. Persistent high pressure, dew points in the low 70s, and heat indices above 100°F during the day have maintained elevated minimum temperatures well above the 1991–2020 climatological average low of about 71°F. Recent observations from Austin-Bergstrom and nearby stations show similar patterns over the past several days, with no cold front or significant rain to enhance radiational cooling. Traders appear to weigh these factors heavily, assigning the highest implied probabilities to the 78–81°F bins while discounting cooler outcomes below 74°F given the current atmospheric setup. Final resolution will depend on official overnight readings through early morning on September 5.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Markt eröffnet: Sep 2, 2026, 3:29 AM ET
Volumen
$975Enddatum
4. Sep. 2026Markt eröffnet
Sep 2, 2026, 3:29 AM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kausAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Warm, humid southerly flow and limited nocturnal cooling under partly cloudy skies position overnight lows in Austin near 77°F for September 4, aligning with National Weather Service forecasts and recent model consensus. Persistent high pressure, dew points in the low 70s, and heat indices above 100°F during the day have maintained elevated minimum temperatures well above the 1991–2020 climatological average low of about 71°F. Recent observations from Austin-Bergstrom and nearby stations show similar patterns over the past several days, with no cold front or significant rain to enhance radiational cooling. Traders appear to weigh these factors heavily, assigning the highest implied probabilities to the 78–81°F bins while discounting cooler outcomes below 74°F given the current atmospheric setup. Final resolution will depend on official overnight readings through early morning on September 5.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$975Enddatum
4. Sep. 2026Markt eröffnet
Sep 2, 2026, 3:29 AM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kausAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...Warm, humid southerly flow and limited nocturnal cooling under partly cloudy skies position overnight lows in Austin near 77°F for September 4, aligning with National Weather Service forecasts and recent model consensus. Persistent high pressure, dew points in the low 70s, and heat indices above 100°F during the day have maintained elevated minimum temperatures well above the 1991–2020 climatological average low of about 71°F. Recent observations from Austin-Bergstrom and nearby stations show similar patterns over the past several days, with no cold front or significant rain to enhance radiational cooling. Traders appear to weigh these factors heavily, assigning the highest implied probabilities to the 78–81°F bins while discounting cooler outcomes below 74°F given the current atmospheric setup. Final resolution will depend on official overnight readings through early morning on September 5.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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