**Ongoing Houthi threats, Saudi-linked blockade risks, and elevated war-risk insurance continue to suppress commercial traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, keeping weekly totals clustered in the 170–209 range and producing closely contested market-implied odds.** Recent data show weekly transits fluctuating between roughly 200–300 vessels amid partial recovery from 2025 lows, with August figures including a high of 302 (Aug 17–23) followed by a drop to 202 (Aug 24–30) as product tanker, bulker, and containership volumes eased. Daily commodity-vessel counts have ranged from the mid-20s to low-40s on individual days, well below pre-crisis norms, reflecting persistent rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope, selective dark transits, and carrier caution tied to Yemen ground fighting near Mokha and Houthi positioning for greater strait control. Traders appear to weigh the potential for modest stabilization or incremental gains against downside risks from fresh incidents or insurance spikes, with the narrow spread between leading bins underscoring uncertainty over whether the upcoming week sustains recent averages near 25–30 vessels per day or shifts materially on any short-term de-escalation signals.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertWie viele Schiffe durchfahren die Bab el-Mandeb-Straße in der Woche vom 7. September?
Wie viele Schiffe durchfahren die Bab el-Mandeb-Straße in der Woche vom 7. September?
170-189 36%
190-209 28%
210-229 24%
<170 8%
$36,651 Vol.
$36,651 Vol.
13. Sep. 2026
<170
8%
170-189
36%
190-209
28%
210-229
24%
230+
7%
170-189 36%
190-209 28%
210-229 24%
<170 8%
$36,651 Vol.
$36,651 Vol.
13. Sep. 2026
<170
$13,830 Vol.
8%
170-189
$287 Vol.
36%
190-209
$566 Vol.
28%
210-229
$663 Vol.
24%
230+
$21,304 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from September 7, 2026, through September 13, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.**Ongoing Houthi threats, Saudi-linked blockade risks, and elevated war-risk insurance continue to suppress commercial traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, keeping weekly totals clustered in the 170–209 range and producing closely contested market-implied odds.** Recent data show weekly transits fluctuating between roughly 200–300 vessels amid partial recovery from 2025 lows, with August figures including a high of 302 (Aug 17–23) followed by a drop to 202 (Aug 24–30) as product tanker, bulker, and containership volumes eased. Daily commodity-vessel counts have ranged from the mid-20s to low-40s on individual days, well below pre-crisis norms, reflecting persistent rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope, selective dark transits, and carrier caution tied to Yemen ground fighting near Mokha and Houthi positioning for greater strait control.
Traders appear to weigh the potential for modest stabilization or incremental gains against downside risks from fresh incidents or insurance spikes, with the narrow spread between leading bins underscoring uncertainty over whether the upcoming week sustains recent averages near 25–30 vessels per day or shifts materially on any short-term de-escalation signals.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from September 7, 2026, through September 13, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Markt eröffnet: Sep 3, 2026, 10:26 AM ET
Volumen
$36,651Enddatum
13. Sep. 2026Markt eröffnet
Sep 3, 2026, 10:26 AM ETAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from September 7, 2026, through September 13, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.**Ongoing Houthi threats, Saudi-linked blockade risks, and elevated war-risk insurance continue to suppress commercial traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, keeping weekly totals clustered in the 170–209 range and producing closely contested market-implied odds.** Recent data show weekly transits fluctuating between roughly 200–300 vessels amid partial recovery from 2025 lows, with August figures including a high of 302 (Aug 17–23) followed by a drop to 202 (Aug 24–30) as product tanker, bulker, and containership volumes eased. Daily commodity-vessel counts have ranged from the mid-20s to low-40s on individual days, well below pre-crisis norms, reflecting persistent rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope, selective dark transits, and carrier caution tied to Yemen ground fighting near Mokha and Houthi positioning for greater strait control.
Traders appear to weigh the potential for modest stabilization or incremental gains against downside risks from fresh incidents or insurance spikes, with the narrow spread between leading bins underscoring uncertainty over whether the upcoming week sustains recent averages near 25–30 vessels per day or shifts materially on any short-term de-escalation signals.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from September 7, 2026, through September 13, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Volumen
$36,651Enddatum
13. Sep. 2026Markt eröffnet
Sep 3, 2026, 10:26 AM ETAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...**Ongoing Houthi threats, Saudi-linked blockade risks, and elevated war-risk insurance continue to suppress commercial traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, keeping weekly totals clustered in the 170–209 range and producing closely contested market-implied odds.** Recent data show weekly transits fluctuating between roughly 200–300 vessels amid partial recovery from 2025 lows, with August figures including a high of 302 (Aug 17–23) followed by a drop to 202 (Aug 24–30) as product tanker, bulker, and containership volumes eased. Daily commodity-vessel counts have ranged from the mid-20s to low-40s on individual days, well below pre-crisis norms, reflecting persistent rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope, selective dark transits, and carrier caution tied to Yemen ground fighting near Mokha and Houthi positioning for greater strait control. Traders appear to weigh the potential for modest stabilization or incremental gains against downside risks from fresh incidents or insurance spikes, with the narrow spread between leading bins underscoring uncertainty over whether the upcoming week sustains recent averages near 25–30 vessels per day or shifts materially on any short-term de-escalation signals.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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