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icon for Wie viele Amtsinhaber des Demokratischen Hauses werden ihre Vorwahl nicht gewinnen?
Politik·US-Wahl

Wie viele Amtsinhaber des Demokratischen Hauses werden ihre Vorwahl nicht gewinnen?

icon for Wie viele Amtsinhaber des Demokratischen Hauses werden ihre Vorwahl nicht gewinnen?
Politik·US-Wahl

Wie viele Amtsinhaber des Demokratischen Hauses werden ihre Vorwahl nicht gewinnen?

10-12 86.4%

13-15 5.0%

7-9 1.3%

Polymarket

$51,319 Vol.

10-12 86.4%

13-15 5.0%

7-9 1.3%

Polymarket

$51,319 Vol.

7-9

$14,599 Vol.

1%

10-12

$11,153 Vol.

86%

13-15

$5,115 Vol.

5%

The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September. This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections. An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered. This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market. The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.**Trader consensus heavily favors 10-12 Democratic House incumbents failing to win renomination in the 2026 cycle, reflecting a series of primary defeats driven by generational challenges and progressive insurgencies.** Multiple safe-seat incumbents have already fallen, including Reps. Dan Goldman and Adriano Espaillat in New York to candidates backed by Mayor Zohran Mamdani, Rep. Diana DeGette in Colorado to a democratic socialist challenger, and Reps. Shri Thanedar in Michigan and John Larson in Connecticut amid similar anti-incumbent pushes. Redistricting in Texas also forced member-on-member contests that eliminated Rep. Al Green. These outcomes stem from voter frustration with long tenures, ideological divides over issues such as Israel policy and corporate influence, and demands for younger leadership. With primaries largely complete but a handful of runoffs and late contests remaining, the current pricing aligns with historical patterns of elevated but contained primary turnover in non-redistricting-heavy cycles.

The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.

This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.

An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.

This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.

A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.

Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.

The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September. This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections. An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered. This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market. The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
Volumen
$51,319
Markt eröffnet
Jan 14, 2026, 2:55 PM ET

Abwickler

0x2F5e3684c...
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September. This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections. An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered. This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market. The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.**Trader consensus heavily favors 10-12 Democratic House incumbents failing to win renomination in the 2026 cycle, reflecting a series of primary defeats driven by generational challenges and progressive insurgencies.** Multiple safe-seat incumbents have already fallen, including Reps. Dan Goldman and Adriano Espaillat in New York to candidates backed by Mayor Zohran Mamdani, Rep. Diana DeGette in Colorado to a democratic socialist challenger, and Reps. Shri Thanedar in Michigan and John Larson in Connecticut amid similar anti-incumbent pushes. Redistricting in Texas also forced member-on-member contests that eliminated Rep. Al Green. These outcomes stem from voter frustration with long tenures, ideological divides over issues such as Israel policy and corporate influence, and demands for younger leadership. With primaries largely complete but a handful of runoffs and late contests remaining, the current pricing aligns with historical patterns of elevated but contained primary turnover in non-redistricting-heavy cycles.

The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.

This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.

An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.

This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.

A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.

Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.

The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September. This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections. An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered. This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market. The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
Volumen
$51,319
Markt eröffnet
Jan 14, 2026, 2:55 PM ET

Abwickler

0x2F5e3684c...

Verwandte

icon for Werden amtierende Republikaner im Repräsentantenhaus in der Wahlrunde 2026 in vier bis sechs Vorwahlen nicht gewinnen?

Werden amtierende Republikaner im Repräsentantenhaus in der Wahlrunde 2026 in vier bis sechs Vorwahlen nicht gewinnen?

97%
Ja
icon for Werden alle amtierenden demokratischen Senatoren in der Wahlrunde 2026 ihre Nominierungswahlen gewinnen?

Werden alle amtierenden demokratischen Senatoren in der Wahlrunde 2026 ihre Nominierungswahlen gewinnen?

97%
Ja
icon for Werden die amtierenden republikanischen Senatoren bei genau drei Nominierungswahlen im Zyklus 2026 nicht gewinnen?

Werden die amtierenden republikanischen Senatoren bei genau drei Nominierungswahlen im Zyklus 2026 nicht gewinnen?

97%
Ja

Vorsicht bei externen Links.

Häufig gestellte Fragen

„Wie viele Amtsinhaber des Demokratischen Hauses werden ihre Vorwahl nicht gewinnen?" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket mit 6 möglichen Ergebnissen, bei dem Händler Anteile auf Basis ihrer Einschätzung kaufen und verkaufen. Das aktuell führende Ergebnis ist „10-12" mit 86%, gefolgt von „13-15" mit 5%. Die Preise spiegeln Echtzeit-Wahrscheinlichkeiten der Community wider. Ein Anteilspreis von 86¢ bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 86% zuweist. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.

Stand heute hat „Wie viele Amtsinhaber des Demokratischen Hauses werden ihre Vorwahl nicht gewinnen?" ein Gesamthandelsvolumen von $51.3K generiert, seit der Markt am Jan 14, 2026 gestartet wurde. Dieses Aktivitätsniveau spiegelt starkes Engagement der Polymarket-Community wider und stellt sicher, dass die aktuellen Quoten von einem breiten Pool an Marktteilnehmern geprägt werden. Sie können Live-Preisbewegungen verfolgen und direkt auf dieser Seite auf jedes Ergebnis handeln.

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Der aktuelle Favorit für „Wie viele Amtsinhaber des Demokratischen Hauses werden ihre Vorwahl nicht gewinnen?" ist „10-12" mit 86%, was bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 86% zuweist. Das nächstliegende Ergebnis ist „13-15" mit 5%. Diese Quoten werden in Echtzeit aktualisiert, wenn Händler Anteile kaufen und verkaufen. Schauen Sie regelmäßig vorbei oder speichern Sie diese Seite als Lesezeichen.

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