Ongoing Mediterranean heatwave conditions, driven by a persistent subtropical high-pressure system advecting warm Saharan air northward, underpin trader focus on the 34–35°C range for Milan’s August 12 maximum. Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble guidance, alongside Italian meteorological service outlooks, show model consensus clustering near 34°C with moderate spread from local factors like urban heat island effects, boundary-layer mixing, and slight variations in wind or cloud cover that could tip the daily peak either way. Red-alert status across northern Italy and recent observations of 35–36°C highs reinforce this tight distribution, while uncertainty in the final 48-hour model runs explains the near-even implied probabilities between the two leading outcomes.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertHöchste Temperatur in Mailand am 12. August?
Höchste Temperatur in Mailand am 12. August?
34°C 37%
35°C 31%
33°C 16%
36°C 12%
NEU
NEU
12. Aug. 2026
29°C or below
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
1%
32°C
3%
33°C
16%
34°C
37%
35°C
31%
36°C
12%
37°C
2%
38°C
1%
39°C or higher
<1%
34°C 37%
35°C 31%
33°C 16%
36°C 12%
NEU
NEU
12. Aug. 2026
29°C or below
$143 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$89 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$48 Vol.
1%
32°C
$88 Vol.
3%
33°C
$840 Vol.
16%
34°C
$349 Vol.
37%
35°C
$236 Vol.
31%
36°C
$367 Vol.
12%
37°C
$60 Vol.
2%
38°C
$39 Vol.
1%
39°C or higher
$284 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Ongoing Mediterranean heatwave conditions, driven by a persistent subtropical high-pressure system advecting warm Saharan air northward, underpin trader focus on the 34–35°C range for Milan’s August 12 maximum. Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble guidance, alongside Italian meteorological service outlooks, show model consensus clustering near 34°C with moderate spread from local factors like urban heat island effects, boundary-layer mixing, and slight variations in wind or cloud cover that could tip the daily peak either way. Red-alert status across northern Italy and recent observations of 35–36°C highs reinforce this tight distribution, while uncertainty in the final 48-hour model runs explains the near-even implied probabilities between the two leading outcomes.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Markt eröffnet: Aug 10, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Volumen
$2,540Enddatum
12. Aug. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 10, 2026, 12:04 AM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMCResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Ongoing Mediterranean heatwave conditions, driven by a persistent subtropical high-pressure system advecting warm Saharan air northward, underpin trader focus on the 34–35°C range for Milan’s August 12 maximum. Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble guidance, alongside Italian meteorological service outlooks, show model consensus clustering near 34°C with moderate spread from local factors like urban heat island effects, boundary-layer mixing, and slight variations in wind or cloud cover that could tip the daily peak either way. Red-alert status across northern Italy and recent observations of 35–36°C highs reinforce this tight distribution, while uncertainty in the final 48-hour model runs explains the near-even implied probabilities between the two leading outcomes.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$2,540Enddatum
12. Aug. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 10, 2026, 12:04 AM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ongoing Mediterranean heatwave conditions, driven by a persistent subtropical high-pressure system advecting warm Saharan air northward, underpin trader focus on the 34–35°C range for Milan’s August 12 maximum. Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble guidance, alongside Italian meteorological service outlooks, show model consensus clustering near 34°C with moderate spread from local factors like urban heat island effects, boundary-layer mixing, and slight variations in wind or cloud cover that could tip the daily peak either way. Red-alert status across northern Italy and recent observations of 35–36°C highs reinforce this tight distribution, while uncertainty in the final 48-hour model runs explains the near-even implied probabilities between the two leading outcomes.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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