**Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1, Opus 5, and Mythos 5 models currently lead Humanity’s Last Exam (HLE) leaderboards at 59–65% accuracy as of early September 2026, while OpenAI’s strongest reported GPT-5.4 Pro, GPT-5.5 Pro, and GPT-6 Astra scores range from 54.7% to 58.7%.** The 2,500-question benchmark, developed by the Center for AI Safety and Scale AI, tests graduate-level reasoning across math, sciences, and humanities with low contamination risk. Recent OpenAI gains stem from improved chain-of-thought scaffolding, tool use, and iterative GPT-5 series releases, but Anthropic’s advantages in adaptive reasoning and multidisciplinary integration have maintained the gap. With four months remaining in 2026, any new OpenAI model launch or major capability update could shift trader-implied odds on thresholds like 55% or 60%.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert$76,661 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
50 %+
90%
55 %+
78%
60 %+
35%
65 %+
20%
70 %+
11%
$76,661 Vol.
50 %+
$12,199 Vol.
90%
55 %+
$29,260 Vol.
78%
60 %+
$25,242 Vol.
35%
65 %+
$5,491 Vol.
20%
70 %+
$4,469 Vol.
11%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model published by OpenAI achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".**Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1, Opus 5, and Mythos 5 models currently lead Humanity’s Last Exam (HLE) leaderboards at 59–65% accuracy as of early September 2026, while OpenAI’s strongest reported GPT-5.4 Pro, GPT-5.5 Pro, and GPT-6 Astra scores range from 54.7% to 58.7%.** The 2,500-question benchmark, developed by the Center for AI Safety and Scale AI, tests graduate-level reasoning across math, sciences, and humanities with low contamination risk. Recent OpenAI gains stem from improved chain-of-thought scaffolding, tool use, and iterative GPT-5 series releases, but Anthropic’s advantages in adaptive reasoning and multidisciplinary integration have maintained the gap. With four months remaining in 2026, any new OpenAI model launch or major capability update could shift trader-implied odds on thresholds like 55% or 60%.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model published by OpenAI achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
Markt eröffnet: Jul 23, 2026, 6:53 PM ET
Volumen
$76,661Enddatum
1. Jan. 2027Markt eröffnet
Jul 23, 2026, 6:53 PM ETAbwickler
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model published by OpenAI achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".**Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1, Opus 5, and Mythos 5 models currently lead Humanity’s Last Exam (HLE) leaderboards at 59–65% accuracy as of early September 2026, while OpenAI’s strongest reported GPT-5.4 Pro, GPT-5.5 Pro, and GPT-6 Astra scores range from 54.7% to 58.7%.** The 2,500-question benchmark, developed by the Center for AI Safety and Scale AI, tests graduate-level reasoning across math, sciences, and humanities with low contamination risk. Recent OpenAI gains stem from improved chain-of-thought scaffolding, tool use, and iterative GPT-5 series releases, but Anthropic’s advantages in adaptive reasoning and multidisciplinary integration have maintained the gap. With four months remaining in 2026, any new OpenAI model launch or major capability update could shift trader-implied odds on thresholds like 55% or 60%.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model published by OpenAI achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
Volumen
$76,661Enddatum
1. Jan. 2027Markt eröffnet
Jul 23, 2026, 6:53 PM ETAbwickler
0x65070BE91...**Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1, Opus 5, and Mythos 5 models currently lead Humanity’s Last Exam (HLE) leaderboards at 59–65% accuracy as of early September 2026, while OpenAI’s strongest reported GPT-5.4 Pro, GPT-5.5 Pro, and GPT-6 Astra scores range from 54.7% to 58.7%.** The 2,500-question benchmark, developed by the Center for AI Safety and Scale AI, tests graduate-level reasoning across math, sciences, and humanities with low contamination risk. Recent OpenAI gains stem from improved chain-of-thought scaffolding, tool use, and iterative GPT-5 series releases, but Anthropic’s advantages in adaptive reasoning and multidisciplinary integration have maintained the gap. With four months remaining in 2026, any new OpenAI model launch or major capability update could shift trader-implied odds on thresholds like 55% or 60%.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertVerwandte
Wird das höchste Ergebnis, das bei Humanity’s Last Exam im Jahr 2026 erzielt wird, 60 % oder mehr betragen?
66%
Ja
Wird die höchste von einem Meta-Modell erreichte Punktzahl bei Humanity’s Last Exam im Jahr 2026 55 % oder mehr betragen?
44%
Ja
Wird die höchste von einem Anthropic Claude Modell erreichte Punktzahl bei Humanity’s Last Exam im Jahr 2026 55 % oder höher sein?
90%
Ja
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Häufig gestellte Fragen