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icon for Wahlsieg des kalifornischen Gouverneurs
Politik·Midterms

Wahlsieg des kalifornischen Gouverneurs

icon for Wahlsieg des kalifornischen Gouverneurs
Politik·Midterms

Wahlsieg des kalifornischen Gouverneurs

Becerra 0-10% 37%

Becerra 40 %+. 26%

Becerra 10-15% 21%

Becerra 15-20% 20%

Polymarket
NEU

Becerra 0-10% 37%

Becerra 40 %+. 26%

Becerra 10-15% 21%

Becerra 15-20% 20%

Polymarket
NEU
icon for Becerra 40 %+.

Becerra 40 %+.

$56 Vol.

26%

icon for Becerra 35-40%

Becerra 35-40%

$41 Vol.

7%

icon for Becerra 30-35%

Becerra 30-35%

$32 Vol.

12%

icon for Becerra 25-30%

Becerra 25-30%

$32 Vol.

8%

icon for Becerra 20-25%

Becerra 20-25%

$41 Vol.

15%

icon for Becerra 15-20%

Becerra 15-20%

$51 Vol.

13%

icon for Becerra 10-15%

Becerra 10-15%

$46 Vol.

21%

icon for Becerra 0-10%

Becerra 0-10%

$36 Vol.

37%

icon for Hilton gewinnt

Hilton gewinnt

$41 Vol.

18%

The 2026 California gubernatorial election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. The candidates named in this market are individual candidates appearing on the general election ballot. They do not represent party options, and this market will not resolve based on the party affiliation of any candidate. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 California gubernatorial election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Becerra and Hilton advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary to face off in the November general election for California governor, an open seat following term limits on the incumbent. Trader consensus on victory margins reflects California’s consistent Democratic lean in statewide contests, Becerra’s extensive record as attorney general and HHS secretary, and strong partisan loyalty among registered voters. Recent polling averages show Becerra ahead by roughly 20 points, aligning with the heaviest probability on a 30-35 point margin. Hilton’s focus on taxes, housing affordability, and crime has consolidated Republican support but faces structural headwinds in a state where Democrats hold a large registration edge. Upcoming debates, economic data releases, and any national political developments could shift turnout or undecided no-party-preference voters and alter the final spread.

The 2026 California gubernatorial election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.

The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

The candidates named in this market are individual candidates appearing on the general election ballot. They do not represent party options, and this market will not resolve based on the party affiliation of any candidate.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.

If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other."

This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.

If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 California gubernatorial election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The 2026 California gubernatorial election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. The candidates named in this market are individual candidates appearing on the general election ballot. They do not represent party options, and this market will not resolve based on the party affiliation of any candidate. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 California gubernatorial election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$376
Enddatum
3. Nov. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Sep 2, 2026, 3:21 PM ET

Abwickler

0x69c47De9D...
The 2026 California gubernatorial election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. The candidates named in this market are individual candidates appearing on the general election ballot. They do not represent party options, and this market will not resolve based on the party affiliation of any candidate. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 California gubernatorial election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Becerra and Hilton advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary to face off in the November general election for California governor, an open seat following term limits on the incumbent. Trader consensus on victory margins reflects California’s consistent Democratic lean in statewide contests, Becerra’s extensive record as attorney general and HHS secretary, and strong partisan loyalty among registered voters. Recent polling averages show Becerra ahead by roughly 20 points, aligning with the heaviest probability on a 30-35 point margin. Hilton’s focus on taxes, housing affordability, and crime has consolidated Republican support but faces structural headwinds in a state where Democrats hold a large registration edge. Upcoming debates, economic data releases, and any national political developments could shift turnout or undecided no-party-preference voters and alter the final spread.

The 2026 California gubernatorial election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.

The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

The candidates named in this market are individual candidates appearing on the general election ballot. They do not represent party options, and this market will not resolve based on the party affiliation of any candidate.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.

If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other."

This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.

If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 California gubernatorial election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The 2026 California gubernatorial election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. The candidates named in this market are individual candidates appearing on the general election ballot. They do not represent party options, and this market will not resolve based on the party affiliation of any candidate. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 California gubernatorial election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$376
Enddatum
3. Nov. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Sep 2, 2026, 3:21 PM ET

Abwickler

0x69c47De9D...

Verwandte

icon for Wird der Kandidat der Republikanischen Partei die Gouverneurswahl 2026 in Nevada mit 3% bis 6% Vorsprung gewinnen?

Wird der Kandidat der Republikanischen Partei die Gouverneurswahl 2026 in Nevada mit 3% bis 6% Vorsprung gewinnen?

16%
Ja
icon for Wird der Kandidat der Republikanischen Partei die Gouverneurswahl in Texas 2026 mit 6%-9% Vorsprung gewinnen?

Wird der Kandidat der Republikanischen Partei die Gouverneurswahl in Texas 2026 mit 6%-9% Vorsprung gewinnen?

17%
Ja
icon for Wird der Kandidat der Republikanischen Partei die Gouverneurswahl in Florida 2026 mit 0%-3% Vorsprung gewinnen?

Wird der Kandidat der Republikanischen Partei die Gouverneurswahl in Florida 2026 mit 0%-3% Vorsprung gewinnen?

32%
Ja

Vorsicht bei externen Links.

Häufig gestellte Fragen

„Wahlsieg des kalifornischen Gouverneurs" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket mit 9 möglichen Ergebnissen, bei dem Händler Anteile auf Basis ihrer Einschätzung kaufen und verkaufen. Das aktuell führende Ergebnis ist „Becerra 0-10%" mit 37%, gefolgt von „Becerra 40 %+." mit 26%. Die Preise spiegeln Echtzeit-Wahrscheinlichkeiten der Community wider. Ein Anteilspreis von 37¢ bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 37% zuweist. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.

„Wahlsieg des kalifornischen Gouverneurs" ist ein neu erstellter Markt auf Polymarket, gestartet am Sep 2, 2026. Als früher Markt haben Sie die Gelegenheit, zu den ersten Händlern zu gehören, die die Quoten setzen und die ersten Preissignale des Marktes etablieren. Sie können diese Seite auch als Lesezeichen speichern, um Volumen und Handelsaktivität zu verfolgen, während der Markt an Fahrt gewinnt.

Um auf „Wahlsieg des kalifornischen Gouverneurs" zu handeln, durchsuchen Sie die 9 verfügbaren Ergebnisse auf dieser Seite. Jedes Ergebnis zeigt einen aktuellen Preis, der die implizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit des Marktes darstellt. Um eine Position einzunehmen, wählen Sie das Ergebnis, das Sie für am wahrscheinlichsten halten, wählen Sie „Ja" um dafür oder „Nein" um dagegen zu handeln, geben Sie Ihren Betrag ein und klicken Sie auf „Handeln". Liegt Ihr gewähltes Ergebnis bei Marktauflösung richtig, zahlen Ihre „Ja"-Anteile jeweils $1 aus. Liegt es falsch, zahlen sie $0. Sie können Ihre Anteile auch jederzeit vor der Auflösung verkaufen.

Der aktuelle Favorit für „Wahlsieg des kalifornischen Gouverneurs" ist „Becerra 0-10%" mit 37%, was bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 37% zuweist. Das nächstliegende Ergebnis ist „Becerra 40 %+." mit 26%. Diese Quoten werden in Echtzeit aktualisiert, wenn Händler Anteile kaufen und verkaufen. Schauen Sie regelmäßig vorbei oder speichern Sie diese Seite als Lesezeichen.

Die Auflösungsregeln für „Wahlsieg des kalifornischen Gouverneurs" definieren genau, was passieren muss, damit jedes Ergebnis als Gewinner erklärt wird – einschließlich der offiziellen Datenquellen zur Bestimmung des Ergebnisses. Sie können die vollständigen Auflösungskriterien im Abschnitt „Regeln" auf dieser Seite über den Kommentaren einsehen. Wir empfehlen, die Regeln vor dem Handeln sorgfältig zu lesen, da sie die genauen Bedingungen, Sonderfälle und Quellen festlegen.