Recent July University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment data at 55.2, revised higher from a 54.0 preliminary and up sharply from June’s 49.5, anchors trader positioning ahead of the August 14 preliminary release. The rebound reflected broad-based gains across demographics after energy prices eased following the US-Iran ceasefire, alongside year-ahead inflation expectations declining to 4.2% from 4.6%. Persistent elevation above historical averages and a 10.5% year-over-year shortfall continue to weigh on sentiment, while the July employment report showing a 23,000 payroll decline and 4.1% unemployment rate heightens focus on labor-market cooling. With the July CPI release due August 12, markets price the highest probability in the 55.0–57.9 band amid uncertainty over whether the sequential improvement sustains or reverts toward prior lows.