Current ensemble forecasts for Buenos Aires on August 5 point to a daily maximum near 16–17°C, reflecting the typical late-winter climatology of mild maritime air under variable cloud cover that limits solar insolation. Regional models show close agreement on overall temperatures but diverge slightly on exact peak values depending on the timing of any weak frontal boundary or changes in low-level moisture and wind direction. This narrow spread produces tightly clustered market-implied probabilities, with traders assigning the highest weight to 16°C because it aligns with the central tendency of recent runs while accounting for the 1–2°C uncertainty range inherent in short-range temperature prediction during transitional winter conditions. Updated model guidance and official Servicio Meteorológico Nacional briefings remain the key near-term catalysts.