Economy prediction market odds

Fed Decision in October? — No change 82%, 25 bps increase 16%, 25 bps decrease <1%, 50+ bps increase <1%
Largest Company end of October 2026? — NVIDIA 95%, Company F 50%, Company G 50%, Company H 50%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? — Yes 18%, No 82%
Largest Company end of December 2026? — NVIDIA 84%, Apple 10%, Alphabet 4%, Microsoft 1%
Fed Decision in December? — 25 bps increase 72%, No change 26%, 50+ bps increase 3%, 25 bps decrease 1%
How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027? — 5.3% 86%, 5.4% 64%, 5.5% 42%, 5.7% 17%
Another Fed rate hike in 2026? — Yes 76%, No 24%
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026? — 0 (0 bps) 96%, 1 (25 bps) 2%, 2 (50 bps) 1%, 3 (75 bps) <1%
ECB Interest Rates: October 2026 — No change 94%, 25 bps increase 8%, 50+ bps increase <1%, 50+ bps decrease <1%
Bank of Japan Decision in October? — No change 86%, 25 bps increase 12%, 50+ bps increase 1%, 50+ bps decrease <1%
EU emergency diesel stocks end of October 2026? — 30M+ 97%, 31M+ 92%, 32M+ 90%, 33M+ 68%
US recession by end of 2026? — Yes 8%, No 92%
How high will 30-year Treasury yield go before 2027? — 5.65% 88%, 5.70% 68%, 5.80% 43%, 5.90% 26%
Fed Decision in January? — No change 64%, 25 bps increase 32%, 50+ bps increase 3%, 25 bps decrease 2%
USD x Iranian rials End of December? — 3.0 - 3.5M 28%, 2.5 - 3.0M 25%, 3.5 - 4.0M 22%, 2.0 - 2.5M 18%
How low will 30-year Treasury yield get before 2027? — Below 5.20% 32%, Below 5.15% 28%, Below 5.10% 24%, Below 5.05% 20%
Fed decisions (Oct-Jan) — Pause-Hike-Pause 51%, Pause-Hike-Hike 15%, Pause-Pause-Pause 9%, Other 8%
JOLTS Job Openings: September 2026 — 7.4M+ 24%, <6.8M 22%, 7.3M to 7.4M 16%, 7.0M to 7.1M 15%
What will the median home value in the Austin Metro area be on December 31? — <$397K 24%, $407K - $417K 22%, $397K - $407K 18%, $437K - $446K 15%
Bank of England decision in November? — 25 bps increase 86%, No change 14%, 50+ bps increase <1%, 50+ bps decrease <1%
USD x Iranian rials End of October? — 2.8M+ 74%, 2.7-2.8M 15%, 2.6-2.7M 11%, 2.4-2.5M 5%
Fed decisions (Sep–Dec) — Hike–Pause–Hike 60%, Hike–Pause–Pause 24%, Hike–Hike–Hike 10%, Hike–Hike–Pause 3%
Core PCE YoY - September 2026 — 3.0% 27%, 3.1% 26%, ≤2.7% 18%, 3.2% 6%
Bank of Israel Decision in October? — No Change 92%, Decrease 7%, Increase <1%
EU emergency diesel stocks end of December 2026? — 30M+ 82%, 31M+ 71%, 32M+ 55%, 33M+ 38%
Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in November — No change 80%, 25 bps increase 17%, 25 bps decrease <1%, 50+ bps increase <1%
Reserve Bank of India decision in December — 25 bps increase 52%, No Change 26%, 50+ bps increase 18%, 25 bps decrease 4%
EU emergency diesel stocks end of November 2026? — 30M+ 78%, 31M+ 70%, 32M+ 60%, 33M+ 46%
2nd Largest Company end of October 2026? — Apple 90%, Company B 50%, Company C 50%, Company D 50%
Bank of Brazil decision in November? — 25 bps decrease 72%, No Change 18%, 50+ bps decrease 4%, 25 bps increase <1%
UK Annual GDP Growth 2026 — 1-2% 75%, 0-1% 9%, <0 5%, 2-3% 5%
Core PCE MoM - September 2026 — 0.3% 32%, 0.2% 28%, 0.4% 20%, 0.1% 4%
How high will 5-year Treasury yield go before 2027? — 5.10% 81%, 5.25% 67%
What will the median home value in Chicago Metro be on December 31? — $327K+ 18%, <$303K 16%, $308K - $313K 14%, $313K - $318K 14%
How many jobs added in October? — 100k+ 32%, -25k to 0 25%, 0 to 25k 16%, 25k to 50k 16%
What will the median home value in New York City be on December 31? — $445K - $458K 24%, $458K - $471K 23%, $510K+ 20%, $471K - $484K 14%
September Inflation US - Annual — 3.6% 44%, 3.7% 32%, 3.5% 10%, 3.8% 8%
Canada GDP: August 2026 (MoM) — 0.2 to 0.3% 46%, 0.0 to 0.1% 32%, 0.6%+ 13%, 0.4 to 0.5% 8%
Eurozone GDP growth in Q3 2026 — 0.8-1.1% 40%, 1.2-1.5% 38%, 0.4-0.7% 13%, 0.0-0.3% 9%
Bank of Russia decision in October? — No Change 86%, Decrease 12%, Increase 3%