Zohran Mamdani assumed office as New York City mayor on January 1, 2026, after winning the 2025 election, and has since focused on budget negotiations, modest policy adjustments, and direct constituent outreach through social media. Early polling from April 2026 showed net positive approval among his 2025 voters alongside overall citywide ratings in the low-to-mid 40s, with no major scandals, legal challenges, or legislative crises reported in the subsequent months that would prompt resignation or removal. NYC mayoral terms run four years with the next election scheduled for 2029, and structural barriers such as the absence of a viable recall mechanism or supermajority council support for ouster keep early departure unlikely through the end of 2026. Trader consensus reflects this stability, pricing the probability of an exit before 2027 near 5 percent. Rare scenarios that could still shift odds include a sudden health event, high-profile corruption indictment, or rapid escalation of a fiscal or public-safety crisis severe enough to trigger resignation or council action.