Recent monthly U.S. goods-and-services trade data show the deficit narrowing sharply in 2026, with the June figure at $73.3 billion after May’s $77.6 billion, as imports fell 1.8% to $388 billion while exports declined more modestly. This follows 2025 tariff-driven front-loading that inflated prior-year imports, producing a first-half 2026 cumulative gap of $371 billion versus $560 billion a year earlier. CBO projections anticipate exports growing faster than imports through dollar depreciation and tariff adjustments, shrinking the deficit as a share of GDP. Annualizing the observed moderation places the full-year total squarely in the $700–900 billion bands that command the highest market-implied probabilities, with further monthly releases and any shifts in domestic demand or global supply chains remaining key swing factors for the final tally.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$24,009 交易量
$24,009 交易量
2027-02-27
少于5000亿
3%
5000亿–6000亿
5%
6000亿–7000亿美元
8%
7000亿–8000亿
31%
8,000亿–9,000亿
42%
9000亿–1万亿
16%
1万亿–1.1万亿
5%
1.1万亿美元以上
5%
$24,009 交易量
$24,009 交易量
2027-02-27
少于5000亿
$16,848 交易量
3%
5000亿–6000亿
$454 交易量
5%
6000亿–7000亿美元
$543 交易量
8%
7000亿–8000亿
$670 交易量
31%
8,000亿–9,000亿
$1,519 交易量
42%
9000亿–1万亿
$1,397 交易量
16%
1万亿–1.1万亿
$1,458 交易量
5%
1.1万亿美元以上
$1,119 交易量
5%
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Recent monthly U.S. goods-and-services trade data show the deficit narrowing sharply in 2026, with the June figure at $73.3 billion after May’s $77.6 billion, as imports fell 1.8% to $388 billion while exports declined more modestly. This follows 2025 tariff-driven front-loading that inflated prior-year imports, producing a first-half 2026 cumulative gap of $371 billion versus $560 billion a year earlier. CBO projections anticipate exports growing faster than imports through dollar depreciation and tariff adjustments, shrinking the deficit as a share of GDP. Annualizing the observed moderation places the full-year total squarely in the $700–900 billion bands that command the highest market-implied probabilities, with further monthly releases and any shifts in domestic demand or global supply chains remaining key swing factors for the final tally.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
交易量
$24,009结束日期
2027-02-28市场开放时间
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Recent monthly U.S. goods-and-services trade data show the deficit narrowing sharply in 2026, with the June figure at $73.3 billion after May’s $77.6 billion, as imports fell 1.8% to $388 billion while exports declined more modestly. This follows 2025 tariff-driven front-loading that inflated prior-year imports, producing a first-half 2026 cumulative gap of $371 billion versus $560 billion a year earlier. CBO projections anticipate exports growing faster than imports through dollar depreciation and tariff adjustments, shrinking the deficit as a share of GDP. Annualizing the observed moderation places the full-year total squarely in the $700–900 billion bands that command the highest market-implied probabilities, with further monthly releases and any shifts in domestic demand or global supply chains remaining key swing factors for the final tally.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
交易量
$24,009结束日期
2027-02-28市场开放时间
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent monthly U.S. goods-and-services trade data show the deficit narrowing sharply in 2026, with the June figure at $73.3 billion after May’s $77.6 billion, as imports fell 1.8% to $388 billion while exports declined more modestly. This follows 2025 tariff-driven front-loading that inflated prior-year imports, producing a first-half 2026 cumulative gap of $371 billion versus $560 billion a year earlier. CBO projections anticipate exports growing faster than imports through dollar depreciation and tariff adjustments, shrinking the deficit as a share of GDP. Annualizing the observed moderation places the full-year total squarely in the $700–900 billion bands that command the highest market-implied probabilities, with further monthly releases and any shifts in domestic demand or global supply chains remaining key swing factors for the final tally.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题