Recent July employment data showing the unemployment rate easing to 4.1% amid a 23,000 nonfarm payroll decline and labor force contraction has anchored trader expectations for August near that level. With the 4.1% and 4.2% outcomes commanding the highest implied probabilities at 31.5% and 27.5%, markets reflect a low-hire, low-fire equilibrium shaped by cautious business hiring, an aging workforce, and slowing immigration that limits labor supply growth. Monthly volatility from participation rate shifts keeps probabilities closely contested, while broader cooling signals and consensus forecasts around 4.2–4.5% for 2026 sustain uncertainty ahead of the September release.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于4.1% 32%
4.2% 28%
4.3% 20%
4.0% 13%
最新
最新
2026-09-04
≤3.8%
1%
3.9%
2%
4.0%
13%
4.1%
32%
4.2%
28%
4.3%
20%
4.4%
5%
4.5%
3%
≥4.6%
4%
4.1% 32%
4.2% 28%
4.3% 20%
4.0% 13%
最新
最新
2026-09-04
≤3.8%
$110 交易量
1%
3.9%
$112 交易量
2%
4.0%
$554 交易量
13%
4.1%
$2,349 交易量
32%
4.2%
$1,054 交易量
28%
4.3%
$639 交易量
20%
4.4%
$146 交易量
5%
4.5%
$132 交易量
3%
≥4.6%
$112 交易量
4%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for August 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for September 4, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent July employment data showing the unemployment rate easing to 4.1% amid a 23,000 nonfarm payroll decline and labor force contraction has anchored trader expectations for August near that level. With the 4.1% and 4.2% outcomes commanding the highest implied probabilities at 31.5% and 27.5%, markets reflect a low-hire, low-fire equilibrium shaped by cautious business hiring, an aging workforce, and slowing immigration that limits labor supply growth. Monthly volatility from participation rate shifts keeps probabilities closely contested, while broader cooling signals and consensus forecasts around 4.2–4.5% for 2026 sustain uncertainty ahead of the September release.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for August 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for September 4, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for September 4, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
市场开放时间： Aug 7, 2026, 1:07 PM ET
交易量
$5,208结束日期
2026-09-04市场开放时间
Aug 7, 2026, 1:07 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for August 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for September 4, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent July employment data showing the unemployment rate easing to 4.1% amid a 23,000 nonfarm payroll decline and labor force contraction has anchored trader expectations for August near that level. With the 4.1% and 4.2% outcomes commanding the highest implied probabilities at 31.5% and 27.5%, markets reflect a low-hire, low-fire equilibrium shaped by cautious business hiring, an aging workforce, and slowing immigration that limits labor supply growth. Monthly volatility from participation rate shifts keeps probabilities closely contested, while broader cooling signals and consensus forecasts around 4.2–4.5% for 2026 sustain uncertainty ahead of the September release.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for August 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for September 4, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for September 4, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
交易量
$5,208结束日期
2026-09-04市场开放时间
Aug 7, 2026, 1:07 PM ETRecent July employment data showing the unemployment rate easing to 4.1% amid a 23,000 nonfarm payroll decline and labor force contraction has anchored trader expectations for August near that level. With the 4.1% and 4.2% outcomes commanding the highest implied probabilities at 31.5% and 27.5%, markets reflect a low-hire, low-fire equilibrium shaped by cautious business hiring, an aging workforce, and slowing immigration that limits labor supply growth. Monthly volatility from participation rate shifts keeps probabilities closely contested, while broader cooling signals and consensus forecasts around 4.2–4.5% for 2026 sustain uncertainty ahead of the September release.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题