President Trump's October 2025 directive to resume U.S. nuclear weapons testing "on an equal basis" with Russia and China, citing alleged low-yield violations, initially raised prospects for ending the 1992 moratorium. Subsequent clarifications from Energy Secretary Chris Wright, NNSA officials, and STRATCOM commanders emphasized that any activities would center on subcritical experiments and stockpile stewardship rather than yield-producing explosive tests at the Nevada National Security Site. Annual certifications confirm the arsenal's reliability without detonations, while the FY2026 NDAA ties potential resumption to foreign tests that have not materialized. As of September 2026, no explosive nuclear test has occurred, with internal planning focused on non-yield methods amid ongoing diplomatic signaling and arms control scrutiny.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$795,287 交易量
2026-12-31
2026年9月30日
1%
2026年12月31日
5%
$795,287 交易量
2026年9月30日
$57,555 交易量
1%
2026年12月31日
$76,920 交易量
5%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.President Trump's October 2025 directive to resume U.S. nuclear weapons testing "on an equal basis" with Russia and China, citing alleged low-yield violations, initially raised prospects for ending the 1992 moratorium. Subsequent clarifications from Energy Secretary Chris Wright, NNSA officials, and STRATCOM commanders emphasized that any activities would center on subcritical experiments and stockpile stewardship rather than yield-producing explosive tests at the Nevada National Security Site. Annual certifications confirm the arsenal's reliability without detonations, while the FY2026 NDAA ties potential resumption to foreign tests that have not materialized. As of September 2026, no explosive nuclear test has occurred, with internal planning focused on non-yield methods amid ongoing diplomatic signaling and arms control scrutiny.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
交易量
$795,287结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.President Trump's October 2025 directive to resume U.S. nuclear weapons testing "on an equal basis" with Russia and China, citing alleged low-yield violations, initially raised prospects for ending the 1992 moratorium. Subsequent clarifications from Energy Secretary Chris Wright, NNSA officials, and STRATCOM commanders emphasized that any activities would center on subcritical experiments and stockpile stewardship rather than yield-producing explosive tests at the Nevada National Security Site. Annual certifications confirm the arsenal's reliability without detonations, while the FY2026 NDAA ties potential resumption to foreign tests that have not materialized. As of September 2026, no explosive nuclear test has occurred, with internal planning focused on non-yield methods amid ongoing diplomatic signaling and arms control scrutiny.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$795,287结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETPresident Trump's October 2025 directive to resume U.S. nuclear weapons testing "on an equal basis" with Russia and China, citing alleged low-yield violations, initially raised prospects for ending the 1992 moratorium. Subsequent clarifications from Energy Secretary Chris Wright, NNSA officials, and STRATCOM commanders emphasized that any activities would center on subcritical experiments and stockpile stewardship rather than yield-producing explosive tests at the Nevada National Security Site. Annual certifications confirm the arsenal's reliability without detonations, while the FY2026 NDAA ties potential resumption to foreign tests that have not materialized. As of September 2026, no explosive nuclear test has occurred, with internal planning focused on non-yield methods amid ongoing diplomatic signaling and arms control scrutiny.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题