Traders assign a 95.8 percent probability against U.S. military draft authorization in 2026 because Congress has enacted no amendment to the Military Selective Service Act permitting presidential induction orders, while the all-volunteer force continues meeting personnel targets absent a declared national emergency. The fiscal 2026 National Defense Authorization Act advanced only automatic Selective Service registration effective December 2026 through federal data integration, a preparatory database update that leaves conscription authority unchanged. Bipartisan statements and Selective Service guidance confirm registration does not equate to activation. Ongoing readiness simulations and tensions such as the U.S.-Iran ceasefire have produced no legislative votes or executive requests sufficient to trigger mobilization. Realistic shifts remain possible via sudden conflict escalation prompting emergency congressional action or a formal presidential request before year-end.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
4% 概率
$521,368 交易量
$521,368 交易量
2026-12-30
是
4% 概率
$521,368 交易量
$521,368 交易量
2026-12-30
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Traders assign a 95.8 percent probability against U.S. military draft authorization in 2026 because Congress has enacted no amendment to the Military Selective Service Act permitting presidential induction orders, while the all-volunteer force continues meeting personnel targets absent a declared national emergency. The fiscal 2026 National Defense Authorization Act advanced only automatic Selective Service registration effective December 2026 through federal data integration, a preparatory database update that leaves conscription authority unchanged. Bipartisan statements and Selective Service guidance confirm registration does not equate to activation. Ongoing readiness simulations and tensions such as the U.S.-Iran ceasefire have produced no legislative votes or executive requests sufficient to trigger mobilization. Realistic shifts remain possible via sudden conflict escalation prompting emergency congressional action or a formal presidential request before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Mar 13, 2026, 1:23 PM ET
交易量
$521,368结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Mar 13, 2026, 1:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Traders assign a 95.8 percent probability against U.S. military draft authorization in 2026 because Congress has enacted no amendment to the Military Selective Service Act permitting presidential induction orders, while the all-volunteer force continues meeting personnel targets absent a declared national emergency. The fiscal 2026 National Defense Authorization Act advanced only automatic Selective Service registration effective December 2026 through federal data integration, a preparatory database update that leaves conscription authority unchanged. Bipartisan statements and Selective Service guidance confirm registration does not equate to activation. Ongoing readiness simulations and tensions such as the U.S.-Iran ceasefire have produced no legislative votes or executive requests sufficient to trigger mobilization. Realistic shifts remain possible via sudden conflict escalation prompting emergency congressional action or a formal presidential request before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$521,368结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Mar 13, 2026, 1:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 95.8 percent probability against U.S. military draft authorization in 2026 because Congress has enacted no amendment to the Military Selective Service Act permitting presidential induction orders, while the all-volunteer force continues meeting personnel targets absent a declared national emergency. The fiscal 2026 National Defense Authorization Act advanced only automatic Selective Service registration effective December 2026 through federal data integration, a preparatory database update that leaves conscription authority unchanged. Bipartisan statements and Selective Service guidance confirm registration does not equate to activation. Ongoing readiness simulations and tensions such as the U.S.-Iran ceasefire have produced no legislative votes or executive requests sufficient to trigger mobilization. Realistic shifts remain possible via sudden conflict escalation prompting emergency congressional action or a formal presidential request before year-end.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题