Traders assign a 95.5% implied probability against U.S. military draft authorization in 2026 due to the absence of any legislation amending the Military Selective Service Act to permit presidential induction authority, a step required since the all-volunteer force began in 1973. Recent congressional action focused solely on automating Selective Service registration via the fiscal year 2026 National Defense Authorization Act, without advancing conscription measures, amid sustained reliance on volunteer recruitment and bipartisan resistance to compulsory service. Ongoing conflicts have prompted statements keeping options open but produced no vote counts or executive actions toward activation. A major escalation in a theater such as the Middle East or East Asia that demands rapid force expansion beyond volunteer capacity could still prompt Congress to consider authorization before year-end.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
5% 概率
$521,368 交易量
$521,368 交易量
2026-12-30
是
5% 概率
$521,368 交易量
$521,368 交易量
2026-12-30
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Traders assign a 95.5% implied probability against U.S. military draft authorization in 2026 due to the absence of any legislation amending the Military Selective Service Act to permit presidential induction authority, a step required since the all-volunteer force began in 1973. Recent congressional action focused solely on automating Selective Service registration via the fiscal year 2026 National Defense Authorization Act, without advancing conscription measures, amid sustained reliance on volunteer recruitment and bipartisan resistance to compulsory service. Ongoing conflicts have prompted statements keeping options open but produced no vote counts or executive actions toward activation. A major escalation in a theater such as the Middle East or East Asia that demands rapid force expansion beyond volunteer capacity could still prompt Congress to consider authorization before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Mar 13, 2026, 1:23 PM ET
交易量
$521,368结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Mar 13, 2026, 1:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Traders assign a 95.5% implied probability against U.S. military draft authorization in 2026 due to the absence of any legislation amending the Military Selective Service Act to permit presidential induction authority, a step required since the all-volunteer force began in 1973. Recent congressional action focused solely on automating Selective Service registration via the fiscal year 2026 National Defense Authorization Act, without advancing conscription measures, amid sustained reliance on volunteer recruitment and bipartisan resistance to compulsory service. Ongoing conflicts have prompted statements keeping options open but produced no vote counts or executive actions toward activation. A major escalation in a theater such as the Middle East or East Asia that demands rapid force expansion beyond volunteer capacity could still prompt Congress to consider authorization before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$521,368结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Mar 13, 2026, 1:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 95.5% implied probability against U.S. military draft authorization in 2026 due to the absence of any legislation amending the Military Selective Service Act to permit presidential induction authority, a step required since the all-volunteer force began in 1973. Recent congressional action focused solely on automating Selective Service registration via the fiscal year 2026 National Defense Authorization Act, without advancing conscription measures, amid sustained reliance on volunteer recruitment and bipartisan resistance to compulsory service. Ongoing conflicts have prompted statements keeping options open but produced no vote counts or executive actions toward activation. A major escalation in a theater such as the Middle East or East Asia that demands rapid force expansion beyond volunteer capacity could still prompt Congress to consider authorization before year-end.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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