The July final University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment index rose to 55.2, its highest since February, on broad improvements across income, age, and political groups amid easing gasoline prices following earlier geopolitical pressures. Year-ahead inflation expectations moderated to 4.2% while long-term expectations held at 3.3%, though both remain elevated relative to pre-2025 levels and the index stays 10.5% below year-ago readings. With the preliminary August release due August 14, trader consensus clusters around 52–57.9 (65.5% combined probability), reflecting uncertainty over whether recent gains in current conditions and expectations will hold amid ongoing price sensitivity and mixed labor-market signals. Market-implied odds treat the outcome as closely contested, with the 55–57.9 bin edging ahead on momentum from the prior month’s upward revision.